Posts Tagged “icm”

ICM: the ‘gold standard’ pollster?

by Stephen Tall on April 27, 2015

It’s not just the political leaders whose careers are on the line on 7th May – so are the pollsters’ reputations. Never before in the UK has an election been as polled as this one — well over 2,000 in (…)

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Lib Dem poll ratings – why I’m putting my trust in ICM

by Stephen Tall on March 3, 2015

Occasionally, when I see the latest poll showing the Lib Dems’ poll rating dribbling along at 6-8%, I wonder if I was stupidly over-optimistic when I nailed my colours to the mast with my prediction in January that the party (…)

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Forget about the Greens, it’s still the economy which should worry Labour most

by Stephen Tall on January 21, 2015

Over at this morning’s edition of The Times’s Red Box email, Philip Webster says, “I’m still looking for the “killer question” that tells us who the nation wants to form the next government”. I think the one reported today is (…)

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The polls in 2014: what they show with 133 days left til 7 May 2015

by Stephen Tall on December 24, 2014

The final polls of the year have been published — getting on for 500 have been commissioned in 2014 — and their story is told in the graph below. It shows Labour’s declining (down from c.38% to c.33%), the Tories static (at c.32%), Ukip on the rise (up from c.12% to c.16%), and the Lib […]

The ‘nowcast’ for May 2015 which gives the Lib Dems 28 MPs

by Stephen Tall on November 25, 2014

Over at the polling website May2015 (part of the New Statesman stable) Matt Singh has asked the straightforward question, ‘How are the Lib Dems polling and will they survive in May 2015?’ Except it isn’t all that straightforward… First, there’s the issue that the different polling companies don’t agree on what the current Lib Dem […]

ICM has Labour ahead, Ukip moving into 3rd place, Lib Dems on 11%

by Stephen Tall on October 15, 2014

The Guardian published its latest ICM poll — commonly regarded as the ‘gold standard’ — this week. The top-line (with changes on the previous months) was: Labour 35% (=), Conservatives 31% (-2), Ukip 14% (+5), Lib Dems 11% (+1) and Others 10% (-3). Polling in September/October tends to fluctuate, as the noise of conference season […]

ICM poll: Labour leads Tories by 7%, Lib Dems in third place on 12%

by Stephen Tall on August 12, 2014

What a difference a month makes. In July, the Guardian’s ICM poll – the ‘gold standard’ – showed a narrow 1% Tory lead over Labour. Fast forward to August and Labour enjoys a solid 7% lead over the Tories, by 38% to 31%. The Lib Dems are in third place, unchanged on 12%, with Ukip […]

ICM poll: Tories edge ahead of Labour, while Ukip collapse to 4th behind Lib Dems

by Stephen Tall on July 17, 2014

Amidst all the reshuffle excitement, I didn’t get chance to report the latest ICM poll – regarded by pundits as the ‘gold standard’ – for The Guardian, published on Tuesday. It shows the Tories a nose ahead of Labour, 34% to 33%, with Ukip slumping to fourth place (9%) behind the Lib Dems on 12%. […]

ICM poll: No revival for two-party politics, even as Lib Dems drop to 10%

by Stephen Tall on June 18, 2014

The Guardian has published its latest ICM poll, the ‘gold standard’ survey most eagerly awaited alike by political junkies (because ICM has the best track record) and Lib Dems (because it tends to give the party higher ratings). It shows Labour on 32%, a nose ahead of the Tories (31%), with Ukip (16%) and the […]

Mark Pack’s verdict on those ICM polls: “not sensible figures for anyone to draw a conclusion from”

by Stephen Tall on May 28, 2014

My former co-editor here at LibDemVoice, Mark Pack, has been taking a detailed look in his latest Liberal Democrat Newswire at those ICM constituency polls commissioned by Lord Oakeshott. Here’s his take on them: It’s not only the attempted anonymous funding of the polls that’s questionable. So too is the way they were worded. Even […]



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