Chart of the day: “there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”

by Stephen Tall on December 12, 2014

Some fascinating analysis from polling buff Lewis Baston over at ConservativeHome:

polls six months out

 

Three key points stand out (to me):

Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance.

Governments gain more often than oppositions: if my Conservative-supporting readers want some comfort, there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months.

… people clearly do not abandon their flirtations with ‘minor’ parties and go back to the big two when the election draws near

But do go and read the full thing, not least for the deliciously depressing Gramsci pay-off.