UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

by Stephen Tall on December 14, 2013

We’re 18 months from the May 2015 election so I thought it’d be useful to keep a running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats…

I published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it – many thanks to those of you who commented here, on Twitter, via Facebook and by email and text. Here’s the latest version of the list of (re-)selections in our held seats and the top 50 targets for the party — however, I realise we’ve just gone through AGM season so please do let me know of updates to this list.

It’s a snapshot of how the party’s doing in getting people in place in the battleground seats that will determine the extent of Lib Dem influence in the next parliament:

Held seats: 31/57 MPs re-selected or candidates selected where MPs retiring (40%); 7/57 MPs retiring (12%) – 3 potential successors selected.

Top targets from Labour: 8/23 candidates selected (35%).

Top targets from Tories: 14/27 candidates selected (52%).

With 18 months to the next election, the Lib Dems have candidates in place in 22 of our top 50 targets – almost half. Realistically, seats currently held by the Tories are more likely prospects for the party. However, there remain 13 Tory seats in the overall top 50 where the party has neither selected a candidate nor yet advertised for one. Remarkably, this appears to include the Lib Dems No. 1 target (at least on paper): Camborne and Redruth, where Julia Goldsworthy was defeated by just 66 votes. If there’s one thing we know about winning seats, it’s the importance of selecting a credible candidate good and early.

How are we doing on the female:male candidate selection? Well, despite the party’s success in all three incumbent seat vacancies to date choosing women candidates, the overall picture in our held and our top 50 targets seats is less promising. To date, the Lib Dems will have eight women standing in our 57 currently held seats (a further four selections are due to take place where MPs have announced their retirement). And in the 21 of the top 50 targets which have so far selected candidates, eight (38%) are women.

Held seats:
Number of women currently expected to be standing in 2015: 8/57 (14%)

Top 50 target seats:
Number of women currently selected in 2015: 8/50 (16%)
Number of men currently selected in 2015: 14/50 (28%)

The lists below are my best understanding of the current situation. Please do let me know if you can help me update it.

Here’s the full list of the 57 MPs elected as Liberal Democrats in May 2010:

    Danny Alexander, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – RESELECTED
    Norman Baker, Lewes
    Alan Beith, Berwick-upon-Tweed – RETIRING. Julie Pörksen selected
    Gordon Birtwistle, Burnley – RESELECTED
    Tom Brake, Carshalton and Wallington – RESELECTED
    Annette Brooke, Mid Dorset and North Poole – RETIRING. Vikki Slade selected
    Jeremy Browne, Taunton – RESELECTED
    Malcolm Bruce, Gordon – RETIRING, selection in process.
    Paul Burstow, Sutton and Cheam – RESELECTED
    Lorely Burt, Solihull – RESELECTED
    Vincent Cable, Twickenham – RESELECTED
    Menzies Campbell, North East Fife – RETIRING
    Alistair Carmichael, Orkney and Shetland
    Nick Clegg, Sheffield Hallam – RESELECTED
    Michael Crockart, Edinburgh West
    Edward Davey, Kingston and Surbiton – RESELECTED
    Tim Farron, Westmorland and Lonsdale – RESELECTED
    Lynne Featherstone, Hornsey and Wood Green – RESELECTED
    Don Foster, Bath
    Andrew George, St Ives
    Stephen Gilbert, St Austell & Newquay
    Duncan Hames, Chippenham – RESELECTED
    Mike Hancock, Portsmouth South
    Nick Harvey, North Devon
    David Heath, Somerton and Frome – RETIRING
    John Hemming, Birmingham Yardley
    Martin Horwood, Cheltenham – RESELECTED
    Simon Hughes, North Southwark and Bermondsey – RESELECTED
    Chris Huhne, Eastleigh – NB: Mike Thornton
    Mark Hunter, Cheadle
    Julian Huppert, Cambridge RESELECTED
    Charles Kennedy, Ross, Skye and Lochaber – RESELECTED
    Norman Lamb, North Norfolk
    David Laws, Yeovil
    John Leech, Manchester Withington – RESELECTED
    Stephen Lloyd, Eastbourne
    Michael Moore, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Greg Mulholland, Leeds North West – RESELECTED
    Tessa Munt, Wells
    John Pugh, Southport
    Alan Reid, Argyll and Bute
    Dan Rogerson, North Cornwall
    Bob Russell, Colchester – RESELECTED
    Adrian Sanders, Torbay – RESELECTED
    Robert Smith, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – RESELECTED
    Andrew Stunell, Hazel Grove – RETIRING. Lisa Smart selected.
    Ian Swales, Redcar
    Jo Swinson, East Dunbartonshire – RESELECTED
    Sarah Teather, Brent Central – RETIRING
    John Thurso, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
    David Ward, Bradford East – RESELECTED
    Steve Webb, Thornbury & Yate
    Simon Wright, Norwich South
    Mark Williams, Ceredigion – RESELECTED
    Roger Williams, Brecon and Radnorshire
    Stephen Williams, Bristol West – RESELECTED
    Jenny Willott, Cardiff Central – RESELECTED

And here are the party’s top 50 targets (as listed by UK Polling Report):

    1. Camborne and Redruth (Con, maj: 66) Swing required 0.08%
    2. Oldham East and Saddleworth (Lab, maj: 103) Swing required 0.12% Richard Marbrow selected
    3. Oxford West and Abingdon (Con, maj: 176) Swing required 0.16% Layla Moran selected
    4. Ashfield (Lab, maj: 192) Swing required 0.2% Jason Zadrozny selected
    5. Sheffield Central (Lab, maj: 165) Swing required 0.2% Selection in process
    6. Edinburgh South (Lab, maj: 316) Swing required 0.36%
    7. Truro and Falmouth (Con, maj: 435) Swing required 0.45% Selection in process
    8. Newton Abbot (Con, maj: 523) Swing required 0.55% Richard Younger-Ross selected
    9. Chesterfield (Lab, maj: 549) Swing required 0.6% Julia Cambridge selected
    10. Swansea West (Lab, maj: 504) Swing required 0.71%
    11. Hull North (Lab, maj: 641) Swing required 0.96% Mike Ross selected
    12. Rochdale (Lab, maj: 889) Swing required 0.97% Selection in process
    13. Harrogate and Knaresborough (Con, maj: 1039) Swing required 0.98% Helen Flynn selected
    14. Watford (Con, maj: 1425) Swing required 1.29%
    15. Hampstead and Kilburn (Lab, maj: 42) Swing required 1.51% Maajid Nawaz selected
    16. Montgomeryshire (Con, maj: 1184) Swing required 1.75% Jane Dodds selected
    17. Edinburgh North and Leith (Lab, maj: 1724) Swing required 1.82%
    18. St Albans (Con, maj: 2305) Swing required 2.19% Sandy Walkington selected
    19. Newport East (Lab, maj: 1650) Swing required 2.39%
    20. Weston-Super-Mare (Con, maj: 2691) Swing required 2.56% Mike Bell selected
    21. Hereford and Herefordshire South (Con, maj: 2481) Swing required 2.57% Lucy Hurds selected
    22. Devon West and Torridge (Con, maj: 2957) Swing required 2.68%
    23. Winchester (Con, maj: 3048) Swing required 2.73% Jackie Porter selected
    24. Northampton North (Con, maj: 1936) Swing required 3.09%
    25. Cornwall South East (Con, maj: 3220) Swing required 3.25% Phil Hutty selected
    26. Bristol North West (Con, maj: 3274) Swing required 3.25%
    27. Durham, City of (Lab, maj: 3067) Swing required 3.32%
    28. Dorset West (Con, maj: 3923) Swing required 3.42% Ros Kayes selected
    29. Richmond Park (Con, maj: 4091) Swing required 3.45% Robin Meltzer selected
    30. York Outer (Con, maj: 3688) Swing required 3.46% Nick Emmerson selected
    31. Streatham (Lab, maj: 3259) Swing required 3.48%
    32. Derby North (Lab, maj: 613) Swing required 3.65% Lucy Care selected
    33. Pontypridd (Lab, maj: 2785) Swing required 3.8% Mike Powell selected
    34. Newcastle upon Tyne North (Lab, maj: 3414) Swing required 3.89%
    35. Aberdeen South (Lab, maj: 3506) Swing required 4.07%
    36. Islington South and Finsbury (Lab, maj: 3569) Swing required 4.1% Terry Stacy selected
    37. Birmingham Hall Green (Lab, maj: 3799) Swing required 4.16% Selection in process
    38. Romsey and Southampton North (Con, maj: 4156) Swing required 4.25%
    39. Colne Valley (Con, maj: 4837) Swing required 4.37%
    40. Oxford East (Lab, maj: 4581) Swing required 4.44% Selection in process
    41. Bosworth (Con, maj: 5032) Swing required 4.64% Michael Mullaney selected
    42. Chelmsford (Con, maj: 5110) Swing required 4.68%
    43. Bristol South (Lab, maj: 4734) Swing required 4.9%
    44. Totnes (Con, maj: 4927) Swing required 5.15%
    45. Cambridgeshire South East (Con, maj: 5946) Swing required 5.17%
    46. Ealing Central and Acton (Con, maj: 3716) Swing required 5.2% Jon Ball selected
    47. Warrington South (Con, maj: 1553) Swing required 5.45%
    48. Wrexham (Lab, maj: 3658) Swing required 5.55%
    49. Dunfermline and Fife West (Lab, maj: 5470) Swing required 5.59%
    50. Tewkesbury (Con, maj: 6310) Swing required 5.85%

For the record, these are the 13 seats we lost in May 2010 (all feature above, in the top 50 targets):

    Romsey (Sandra Gidley, 2000-10)
    Falmouth and Camborne (Julia Goldsworthy, 2005-10)
    Oxford West and Abingdon (Evan Harris, 1997-2010)
    Chesterfield (Paul Holmes, 2001-10)
    Richmond Park (Susan Kramer, 2005-10)
    Montgomeryshire (Lembit Öpik, 1997-2010)
    Dunfermline and West Fife (Willie Rennie, 2006-10)
    Rochdale (Paul Rowen, 2005-10)
    Newton Abbot (Richard Younger-Ross, 2001-10)
    Winchester (Mark Oaten, 1997-2010: retired)
    Hereford & S. Herefordshire (Paul Keetch 1997-2010: retired)
    Harrogate and Knaresborough (Phil Willis, 1997-2010: retired)
    Cornwall South East (Colin Breed, 1997-2010: retired)

The party publishes information on the overall diversity of candidates selected so far (though note this includes all candidates, in seats both winnable as well as those which, alas, aren’t)…

Parliamentary Candidates standing for 2015 General Election

Figures valid as of 01/07/2013 (to be updated every 6 months when selections start)

The total number of candidates currently selected – 38

Total number of selected women – 12 (32%)

Total number of selected candidates identifying as Black, Asian or Ethnic Minority (BAME) – 1 (3%)

Total number of selected candidates identifying as LGBT – 1 (3%)

Total number of selected candidate who identify as disabled – 1 (3%)

Total number of candidates aged
18-24 – 0 (0%)
25-34 – 6 (16%)
35-44 – 11 (29%)
45-54 – 10 (26%)
55+ – 8 (21%)

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.