When will the Coalition end? Here’s what Lib Dem members say…

by Stephen Tall on August 25, 2012

Lib Dem Voice polled our members-only forum recently to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 500 party members have responded, and we’ve been publishing the full results. The final parts are being published this weekend.

Three-quarters say Coalition will be bad for Lib Dem prospects in 2015

LDV asked: Do you think the Coalition Government will be good or bad for the Lib Dems’ electoral prospects at the next general election?

    9% – Good
    77% – Bad
    11% – Neither good nor bad
    4% – Don’t know / No opinion

More than three-quarters of members in our survey reckon the consequences of the Coalition will be bad for the Lib Dems’ election prospects — the figure of 77% is the highest we’ve yet recorded. Less than a year ago, in September 2011, the figure was 59%. Still, 1-in-10 members remains optimistic, and about the same proportion reckons the outcome will be more or less neutral for the party. Here’s the trend over the past two years we’ve been asking this question in our surveys.

Three-quarters say Coalition will last the course

LDV asked: How long do you expect the coalition government will last?

    1% – It will end this year, 2012
    6% – It will end in 2013
    15% – It will end in 2014
    75% – It will last the full term, until 2015
    3% – Don’t know / No opinion

Earlier this week, I published the results of the survey question asking when party members would like the Coalition to end: 75% said in 2015. Today’s survey question gets a strikingly similar result asking what members think actually will happen, with exactly the same proportion saying it will last until 2015. The differences between responses to the to questions emerge among those who would personally like the Coalition to end immediately – 10% in our earlier question – yet only 1% think that’s at all likely.

  • Over 1,200 Lib Dem paid-up party members are registered with LibDemVoice.org. Some 500 responded to the latest survey, which was conducted between 3rd and 6th August.
  • Please note: we make no claims that the survey is fully representative of the Lib Dem membership as a whole. However, LibDemVoice.org’s surveys are the largest independent samples of the views of Lib Dem members across the country, and have in the past offered accurate guides to what party members think.
  • For further information on the reliability/credibility of our surveys, please refer to FAQs: Are the Liberal Democrat Voice surveys of party members accurate? and polling expert Anthony Wells’ verdict, On that poll of Lib Dem members.
  • The full archive of our members’ surveys can be viewed at www.libdemvoice.org/category/ldv-members-poll
  • * Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.