by Stephen Tall on May 6, 2010
Just two hours until the exit polls have their say, but if you can’t wait for that … Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com site has run through pretty much every poll result permutation to come up with a range of projections as to how the House of Commons will look on 7th May.
Here’s their official final projection, which shows the Lib Dems in second place by the slimmest of margins (but of course with half the number of Labour MPs) – and the Tories likely to end up running a minority government.
But if you don’t like that version of events, FiveThirtyEight.com has projected eight different scenarios to show what might happen under their proportional swing model.
These range from showing the Lib Dems losing three seats despite increasing our share of the vote to 24% compared with 2005 – through to the Lib Dems almost overtaking Labour in number of MPs if either the Labour vote collapses, or the Lib Dems put on a last-minute surge.
Take your pick …