Pollwatch Day 26 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 25-29% in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on May 1, 2010

Four polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the S.Times … CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(nc)
    ComRes/ for the S.Mirror/S.Independent … CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 25%(-1)
    ICM in the S.Telegraph … CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-3)
    Angus Reid in the S.Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

These are an improved set of polls for the Tories, all showing a slight boost, perhaps helped by the favourable media coverage of David Cameron in the final televised debate. The Lib Dems have dropped slightly in three polls, and seem consistently to be in the high 20%s, ahead of Labour in two, behind Labour in two.

In addition, there are two polls published by companies not registered with the British Polling Council, both of which have better figures for the Lib Dems. There’s BPIX in the Mail on Sunday showing CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 30%(nc); and OnePoll for The People with CON 30%, LAB 21%, LIB DEM 32%.

The News of the World has an interesting ICM survey “conducted across the 96 political constituencies which are currently held by Labour where the Conservatives require a swing of between 4% and 10% to win the seat”. By cunning sleight-of-hand (aka misleading readers) the paper argues this shows the Tories on course for a majority of 4 seats; though in fact it shows a hung parliament. And they also assume on the basis of a 6.8% Lab-Con swing that the Tories will also win all their Lib Dem targets, a doubtful proposition.

Perhaps more interesting is the ICM detail:

  • one-in-five of voters in these seats classify themselves as ‘floating voters’;
  • 21% believe the Lib Dems have the best policies on taxation and public services (cf 23% for the Tories and 25% for Labour);
  • only 12% believe the Lib Dems have the best policies on the NHS – we score lower than that only on transport;
  • 19% of voters think the Lib Dems have the best policy on immigration – ahead of Labour on 16%, behind the Tories on 26%;
  • the Lib Dems are most trusted of the parties on Afghanistan;
  • the Tories are behind Labour as the party felt best able to deal with Europe (the Lib Dems are third);
  • Nick Clegg is rated the best Prime Minister by 27%, compared to 23% for Gordon Brown and 33% for David Cameron;
  • almost one-third of voters in these seats think a hung parliament would be the best result.
  • NB: remember the voters polled above are in Labour/Tory marginals, not seats where the Lib Dems are strongest.