Final debate polls put Cameron ahead, but floating voters choose Clegg

by Stephen Tall on April 30, 2010

All the post-debate polls are in, and four out of five are giving David Cameron a win, with Clegg tied in first place in one, and in second place in three. Brown is last in all but one:

    YouGov: Cameron 41%, Clegg 32%, Brown 25%.
    ComRes: Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%.
    Populus: Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%.
    ICM: Cameron 35%, Clegg 27%, Brown 29%.
    Angus Reid: Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%.

Well, I guess seeing as Clegg was judged to have won the first two debates it was only fair that Cameron should have a consolation prize :)

For me, it was a score draw, and I do wonder how far the narrow win for Cameron in the post-debate polls reflects more settled party preferences. As Andrew Rawnsley tweeted:

Early post-debate polls (DC 1, NC 2, GB 3) reflecting party positions in national polls. Minds being made up?

It was certainly a better, more convincing performance from Cameron than in his first (disastrous) performance, or his second improved debate. Brown was less good tonight than in earlier debates – relatively speaking, I mean – less empathetic, more dogmatic, still just as tired.

Clegg was under attack far more than in the first debate, but withstood the pressure well; his continuing calls for parties to work together better resonates with the public far more than it does with cynical politicos and hacks.

It will be the headline ‘who won?’ results which get the media salivating, but perhaps the more significant result is to find out what undecided, floating voters thought: they, after all, are the ones who will decide the election. The only analysis I’ve seen so far – from Angus Reid – suggests that they broke decisively in Clegg’s favour:

    Amongst Undecided Voters: Clegg 37%, Cameron 25%, Brown 22%, Not sure 16%

Finally, two polls published tonight:

    YouGov in The Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LIB DEM 28%(-3)
    Angus Reid in the Economist … CON 33%(+1), LAB 23%(nc), LIB DEM 30%(-3)

There’s still no change to Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report’s ‘poll of polls’:

    CON 34%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 29%

Wll tonight shake things up? Or have things settled into a pattern? The next few days will tell us. Oh, and the resul on 6th May.