Pollwatch Day 3 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38% (still)

by Stephen Tall on April 8, 2010

Just one new poll tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 40% (+3%), LAB 31% (-1%), LIB DEM 18% (-1%)

All moves are, of course, within the margin of error. So, yes, it could be the Tory lead has widened. Or it might have not. That’s the joy of polls – read into them what you choose.

This latest survey hasn’t yet made it into Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’, but it’s not going to make a huge difference, I don’t think, so here’s the score as of 8th April:

    Con 38% (n/c), Lab 30% (n/c), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

Very much a case of ‘as you were’.

I received an interesting email from Andrew Hawkins of pollster ComRes, who provided the following interesting table:

    1992 // Con // Lab // LD // Con lead
    Pre-campaign 41 39 16 +2
    Actual result 42 34 18 +8

    1997
    Pre-campaign 28 54 12 -26
    Actual result 31 43 17 -12

    2001
    Pre-campaign 30 51 13 -21
    Actual result 32 41 18 -9

    2005
    Pre-campaign 33 39 20 -6
    Actual result 35 32 22 -3

    2010
    Pre-campaign 37 32 19 +5
    Actual result ? ? ? ?

As Andrew notes, this table:

… shows that in each of the past four general elections, the Conservatives’ average vote share has increased in the weeks before the election while Labour’s average vote share has decreased . Likewise the Lib Dem vote share tends to move upwards from pre-campaign to polling day.

It’s the final sentence there that interested me most :)