A look back at the polls: December '08

by Stephen Tall on January 2, 2009

We tend not to be too poll-obsessed here at LDV – of course we look at them, as do all other politico-geeks, but viewed in isolation no one poll will tell you very much beyond what you want to read into it. Looked at over a reasonable time-span and, if there are enough polls, you can see some trends.

Here, in chronological order, are the results of the eight polls published in December:

Tories 39%, Labour 35%, Lib Dems 17% – Populus/Times (8 Dec)
Tories 37%, Labour 36%, Lib Dems 14% – ComRes/Independent (14 Dec)
Tories 41%, Labour 35%, Lib Dems 15% – YouGov/Sunday Times (14 Dec)
Tories 41%, Labour 36%, Lib Dems 11% – MORI/Mirror (15 Dec)
Tories 38%, Labour 33%, Lib Dems 19% – ICM/Guardian (17 Dec)
Tories 39%, Labour 35%, Lib Dems 15% – MORI (unpublished) (17 Dec)
Tories 42%, Labour 35%, Lib Dems 14% – YouGov/Telegraph (20 Dec)
Tories 39%, Labour 34%, Lib Dems 16% – ComRes/Independent (23 Dec)

Which gives us an average rating for the parties in December as follows, compared with November ’s averages:

Tories 40% (-2%), Labour 35% (+2%), Lib Dems 15% (n/c)

So the final month of the year witnessed Labour ticking up in the polls once again, though at least this time the advance came at the expense of the Tories, rather than the Lib Dems. I covered the party’s polling performance at some length in my end-of-year round-up for LDV here (Q.8); as I noted, one of the polling stories of the year was the disparity of the Lib Dems’ ratings between the different polling companies.

In general, ICM produces the highest ratings for the party; YouGov the lowest. This doesn’t just matter for the Lib Dems, of course, as the Tory lead over Labour is very often dependent on how high/low the Lib Dem rating is judged to be by the polling company. Frustratingly, we’re unlikely to find out whether YouGov or ICM is to be trusted most between elections, as Lib Dem ratings usually begin to converge, at least to within the statistical margin of error of +/-3%, during election campaigns themselves, regardless of the pollster.

It’s not just the party’s headline ratings which are affected by polling companies’ different methodologies: the satisfaction ratings of voters with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as party leader is also affected. Mori and YouGov are the two companies which regularly pose the question. Here’s their last three findings:

Mori: “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way X is doing his job as Y?”

Nick Clegg: 35/28 (+7), Oct; 34/25 (+9), Nov; 35/28 (+7), Dec
Gordon Brown: 35/59 (-24), Oct; 41/50 (-9), Nov; 38/54 (-16), Dec
David Cameron: 49/34 (+15), Oct; 45/36 (+9), Nov; 43/38 (+5), Dec

YouGov: “Do you think (name) is or is not proving a good leader of X / Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Z as PM?”

Nick Clegg: 32/34 (-2), Oct; 31/32 (-1), Nov; 28/34 (-6), Dec
Gordon Brown: 31/65 (-34), Oct; 41/54 (-14), Nov; 38/55 (-17), Dec
David Cameron: 58/32 (+26), Oct; 54/34 (+20), Nov; 46/39 (+7), Dec

Two things to note here. First, both YouGov and Mori agree that David Cameron’s popularity has decreased, while Gordon Brown’s unpopularity has lessened, in the last three months. Indeed, by December, both companies were in virtual agreement in their assessments of the Tory and Labour leaders’ personal ratings.

And yet, secondly, the same does not apply to Nick Clegg’s ratings. As measured by Mori, they appear pretty stable, and mildly positive. Indeed, by December, Nick had the highest satisfaction rating (+7%) of any of the three party leaders. Yet, as measured by YouGov, Nick’s ratings are always negative, with a small-but-sharp downturn in December to -7%.

This divergence is yet another indication of the caution which has to be applied when examining Lib Dem poll ratings. Trouble is, news editors are not keen on caution and caveat, so, if I have just one prediction for 2009, it is this: that the media will continue to report polls in an ignorant and sensationalising fashion. For the best-informed and most coolly-analytical updates on the lastest polling, follow Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report blog. And ignore the MSM.

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“As measured by Mori, [Nick Clegg’s ratings] appear pretty stable, and mildly positive. Indeed, by December, Nick had the highest satisfaction rating (+7%) of any of the three party leaders. Yet, as measured by Mori, Nick’s ratings are always negative, with a small-but-sharp downturn in December to -7%.”

I agree with you about Mori (the first comment) but then how can Nick’s ratings with them always be negative??

YouGov is less kind to Nick, giving him a net performing “badly” rating in December of -6%. It is the YouGov figures that are usually poor.

And in November, Populus found that he had a leader rating of 4.08 (his lowest all year, I think).

The important thing though is how many voters, in both the Mori and YouGov polls, still have no view of Nick. In December’s Mori poll, 37% “didn’t know” what they thought of Nick Clegg. OK, that’s well down from 67% at the start of 2008 but still very high.

In YouGov, 38% didn’t know or had no view, down from 48% in February.

So there’s still a lot to play for.

Note also that the Populus “don’t know” figure for Nick Clegg’s leader rating fell quite sharply over 2008; but then a very different question is being asked.

by Neil Stockley on January 3, 2009 at 1:26 pm. Reply #

I agree with you about Mori (the first comment) but then how can Nick’s ratings with them always be negative??

I know: my mistake. Sentence now corrected, Neil, to read, Yet, as measured by YouGov, Nick’s ratings are always negative, with a small-but-sharp downturn in December to -7%.

by Stephen Tall on January 3, 2009 at 4:28 pm. Reply #

You Gov in todays Sun.

Con 41 down 1
Lab 34 down 1
LD 15 up 1

the sun site has questions on brown vs cameron and economic competancy. the very high numbers of don’t knows are what struck me.

by David Morton on January 9, 2009 at 5:30 am. Reply #

Euro Elections You Gov in Tommorrows Telegraph

Con 35
Lab 29
LD 15
UKIP 7
GRN 5
BNP 4
SNP/PC 4

by David Morton on January 10, 2009 at 7:37 pm. Reply #

Well, if YouGov is usually the lowest poll rating, and it’s gone up 1%, that might actually mean the rating’s gone up across the board… but that’s just speculation.

by Huw Dawson on January 10, 2009 at 8:09 pm. Reply #

“Euro Elections You Gov in Tommorrows Telegraph”

On UK Polling Report, Anthony Wells comments:
“A YouGov poll for the Taxpayers Alliance/Global Vision has European Election voting intention figures – with changes from the 2004 election – of CON 35%(+8), LAB 29%(+6), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 7%(-9), GRN 5%(-1), BNP 4%(-1), SNP/PC 4%. The poll was conducted between the 6th and 8th January.

Taking into account the reduction in seats on a uniform swing this would lead to the Conservatives winning 30 seats (up 3), Labour 24 (up 5), the Liberal Democrats 9 (down 2), the SNP and PC one each and UKIP 4 (down 8). The Greens would lose both their seats, while the BNP would fail to secure one.”

by Anonymous on January 11, 2009 at 10:06 am. Reply #

You Gov / Sunday Times
Con 45 + 4
Lab 32 – 2
LD 14 – 1

Com Res / IoS
Con 41 +2
Lab 32 – 2
LD 15 – 1

by David Morton on January 17, 2009 at 10:08 pm. Reply #

Poll in London by YouGov for the Standard:

Con 43 (+11)
Lab 37 (-2)
LD 13 (-9)

Changes are since the last general election.

by Anonymous on January 19, 2009 at 10:14 am. Reply #

Comment on the London poll by Anthony Wells, of UK Polling Report:
“On a straight uniform swing this would see the Conservatives winning 37 seats, up from 21 at the moment. Labour would win 34 or 35 seats (depending on Bethnal Green and Bow), down from 44 at the moment … The poor old Lib Dems would be left with just one seat in London, that of Simon Hughes in Bermondsey. In reality, as we saw in the large PoliticsHome poll of marginals last year, they will likely to somewhat better than that because of tactical and personal votes, but that only goes so far.”

by Anonymous on January 19, 2009 at 2:32 pm. Reply #

Yesterdays IPSOS MORI

Con 44 up 5
Lab 30 down 5
LD 17 up 2

by David Morton on January 20, 2009 at 2:19 pm. Reply #

Com Res in todays Indie.

Con 43 + 2
Lab 28 – 4
LD 16 + 1

by David Morton on January 26, 2009 at 6:08 am. Reply #

Tomoorrows ICM in the Guardian

Con 44 + 6
Lab 32 – 1
LD 16 – 3

by David Morton on January 26, 2009 at 9:04 pm. Reply #

Equals the low (for an ICM poll) for Clegg’s leadership, set last August.

by Anonymous on January 26, 2009 at 10:47 pm. Reply #

At last some good news for Nick Clegg from a poll – he has been voted the world’s sixth sexiest politician (the poll was topped by Barack Obama):
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2009/01/02/barack-obama-voted-world-s-sexiest-politician-86908-21009524/

What’s not quite so good is that he was ranked one place behind David Cameron and three places behind Ed Miliband [some mistake, surely?].

by Anonymous on January 28, 2009 at 1:49 pm. Reply #

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