by Stephen Tall on July 8, 2008
The Welsh Lib Dems website has the full story, “We can win,” says Welsh Lib Dem Euro candidate (and quite a lot of psephology):
Welsh Liberal Democrat members across Wales have selected Dr. Alan Butt Philip as their lead candidate for the 2009 European Parliament elections. And having won one election, Alan Butt Philip is confident he can lead the campaign to become the first Welsh Liberal Democrat MEP.
Based on the 2007 Regional Assembly Election, an election that resembles the European Elections in its proportionality, the Welsh Liberal Democrat’s only need a 2.45% swing from Labour to take the fourth seat. Taking the constituency vote, the swing required drops to less than 1%. If turnout at the 2005 General Election were repeated, the Welsh Liberal Democrats would win the seat comfortably.
The Welsh Lib Dem European result was:
1. Alan Butt Philip
2. Kevin O’Connor
3. Nick Tregoning
4. Jackie Radford
The Euro elections take place in June 2009.