NEW POLL: what will be the result of the next general election?

by Stephen Tall on May 9, 2008

Gordon Brown’s Labour Party took a pounding in last week’s local elections, and a new YouGov poll sees them trailing the Tories by 26% – so calling a general election is probably the last thing on the Prime Minister’s mind this morning. He can, after all, delay going to the country for another two years.

But the question LDV is asking is this: what do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election? Here are your choices:

> a Labour victory with a Commons majority
> Labour largest single party but no overall majority
> Conservative largest single party but no overall majority
> a Conservative victory with a Commons majority

I know, I know – there’s no option for picking a Lib Dem working majority… use the comments thread for a write-in campaign if you feel strongly.

Result of last poll:

We asked LDV readers: Should deaf couples be allowed to use embryo-screening technology to choose to have a deaf child?

Here’s what you told us:
– Yes they should: 50 (11%)
– No they should not: 378 (81%)
– Don’t know: 37 (8%)
Total Votes: 465 Poll ran: 14th April to 9th May 2008

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The Conservatives having the most MPs would spell bad news for the Lib Dems. Labour will be shedding seats at the next election and I see no reason why the Lib Dems would not be worse off as well.

by Letters From A Tory on May 9, 2008 at 9:59 am. Reply #

Letters From A Tory: Don’t you? Not even after Labour had such a bad time of it the other week, and then it turned out we didn’t really? On account of how, y’know, we’re, like, not the Labour party?

by Andy Hinton on May 9, 2008 at 10:09 am. Reply #

What a stupid poll. I and many others will be camapigning for a Lib Dem majority at the next election.

Last week the Lib Dems pushed Labour into third place in a real ballot across the country.

Anything can happen over the next two years before Brown is forced to go to the country.

by Adrian Sanders MP on May 9, 2008 at 10:44 am. Reply #

Hear Hear. Here in Rochdale, the Labour Party in the Parliamentary Seat nearly fell into 3rd place behind the Tories. Lib Dems got their best ever local election results in the Constituency and won 10 of the 11 seats. Labour didn’t manage to even grab 1. I don’t blame Gordon Brown for this – the buck stops with the local Labour Party who fought a negative, poor campaign and got punished. We simply outworked them and every Lib Dem Member should be signing up NOW and building teams capable of winning their Parliamentary Seat!

by Dave Hennigan on May 9, 2008 at 11:12 am. Reply #

Erm, Adrian – hasn’t Nick Clegg said the aim is to double the number of Lib Dem MPs in two elections? That’s a little way short of a majority…

by Stephen Tall on May 9, 2008 at 11:20 am. Reply #

Stephen – how in any way is this less damaging for us than the article we’ve been talking about in private?

by Jo on May 9, 2008 at 11:54 am. Reply #

Adrian if that really is you thats very far from what Nick has said and as Stephen has pointed out.
People are not stupid to go from 63 seats to Government would be nothing short of the third coming. I am passionate that one day we will have & must have a Lid Dem government but in 2010??
I think Nicks view is spot on and if we get more then great but lets make ourselves look stupid with such posts of “oh yes we can win in one foul swoop” its nonsense and you know it.all it does in reinforce what some people think of of us, while Nicks considered approach sounds logical and achievable in time.

I am in my mid thirties and hope that before I am an old man we have a Lid Dem administration , I would give it 3 elections and the political cycle blowing back our way….it has been 100 years!

by Big Mak on May 9, 2008 at 11:56 am. Reply #

Do you enjoy it round here, LFAT? I can’t help suspecting that you agree with us on more than you’d care to admit 🙂

by asquith on May 9, 2008 at 12:47 pm. Reply #

Whilst the realistic thing is to double the number of MPs, I can’t help but feel that we really don’t have enough “fight them on the beaches”, playing to win kind of talk in the party. There’s enough local parties, who’s gigantic levels of apathy hold us back. They don’t need any help. Whist within the leadership of the party the aim may be to double the number of MPs… and yes it is useful to have that as a measure of Nick’s success… I feel on the whole we need to focus more on an attitude of believing in ourselves and that we can succeed. Many would say its not possible… but then there are lots of other things people have said are not possible… woman prime ministers, black men in the presidential race… a prat like Boris becoming mayor…

by Miranda on May 9, 2008 at 1:14 pm. Reply #

Miranda I agree 100% about local parties, mine(and I mention no names but those of you that know me will now them) are ONLY interested in the council. They could not give a monkeys about the parliamentry seats, and have the attatude of many of our “older” councilors that they are not interested in politics…its more about power and keeping it for self reasons.
Compare that to the Tories who consider council as a means to an end, they are much more political and will try to win everything in site from parish to westminster or Euro seats.

Our mind set at ground level is sometimes thinking small, so we stay small.
I loth the Tories in many ways but winning is in their DNA…we just like to do what we can…a little like the kid that wants to stay off everyones radar at school in case they get picked on.

I hope/d under Nick we would become more aggressive at ground level but many will not play ball as they have no concern what happens at a national level, no matter who the leader or policy.

Anyway thats my rant, but until we do what the Tories have done and get a grip on our local parties(not to say they don’t stay independent) then we will just go on as plucky losers or just a party of he protest vote.
Until we have total by-in from the ground up I fear any GE win is a way off yet.

by Big Mak on May 9, 2008 at 1:40 pm. Reply #

Your vote only elects a person to represent you in your constituency.

I shall be working hard to persuade people in my constituency to vote for me as the person to represent them.

Lib Dem candidates will be doing the same in every constituency across the country.

If we can come second in the popular vote in a national election then nothing should be ruled out. After all, Labour are now in third place and out of the race!

Nick is right to say we aim to double our parliamentary representation over two elections, but he is not ruling out the possibility of a Lib Dem majority.

Sadly, your stupid poll does, and consequently it gives succour to our political opponants making all of our tasks that much harder.

Crewe is where all our attention should be – not on here – and I certainly won’t be canvassing the electors there with the message that we don’t expect to win.

by Adrian Sanders MP on May 9, 2008 at 3:00 pm. Reply #

Adrian, please don’t call our poll “stupid” – it’s just a bit of fun. The plain fact of the matter is that Cameron is now out of the traps. Surely acknowledging a reality is a prerequisite to dealing with it.

by Laurence Boyce on May 9, 2008 at 3:24 pm. Reply #

I’m with the MP and the eloquent Miranda on this. We should be fighting to win the election, not just doing a little bit better.

My local MP is one D. Cameron esq. and he has a thumping majority. If I didn’t think we at least had a chance of unseating him, I wouldn’t bother.

Finally, I voted for Nick Clegg as leader precisely because he was the only one of the two candidates to explicitly say that he wanted to win an election, not just keep being principled, serious and in third place. Perhaps he should be reminded of that…

by wit and wisdom on May 9, 2008 at 3:28 pm. Reply #

Which is really more unlikely? An outright Labour win or a Lib Dem minority win?

by sanbikinoraion on May 9, 2008 at 4:32 pm. Reply #

…A lib dem minority win?

Look, I’m not going to go into details about campaigning but those who know how we run our parliamentary campaigns at a regional and national level surely know its not going to happen even in a best case scenario.

by Tinter on May 9, 2008 at 5:45 pm. Reply #

Letters From A Tory poses an interesting scenario – Labour ‘shedding’ seats and us LibDems worse off too.

Totting this up, then surely Cameron has got more wind in his sails than Blair and Thatcher combined,and is likely to get a majority of, what, 200, 250?

Dream on while you can, tory boy. Reality comes crashing down on the illusion sooner than you will ever notice, so don’t work up too much of a lather trying to present this small local election victory as triumph worthy of a caesar!

by Oranjepan on May 9, 2008 at 6:03 pm. Reply #

Yes, the Tories will soon be imploding when BoJo is a lamentable failure, when the wingnuts rear their heads and show people what the Tory party is really like, when the educated and progressive people who are softly leaning towards Camoron back away from him and his mates.

See Camoron’s article in the Independent. As repuslive and insincere as it was, it shows that politicians have to talk liberal language: Mail “readers” are quite literally dying out every year, and good riddance. Voters will realise who the liberals are.

by asquith on May 9, 2008 at 7:44 pm. Reply #

I am going to defend the poll. Why? Of course we should work to win as many seats as possible but we do need to engage with reality. Yes, there is a perception that the Lib Dems can’t win and that does damage our vote.

It’s an argument we do have to win but we dont do it by saying we are ‘preparing for power’ or making some other kind of absolutist statement. We do it with engaging with what people are thinking and saying well maybe you are right that we are small but won’t change that unless you help us grow. I think the best way we can present ourselves in the next two years is as being the real party of progressive opposition with fresh and radical ideas and see where that takes us.

by Darrell on May 9, 2008 at 7:51 pm. Reply #

If the poll is meant to give those of us who visit this site an opportunity to say what we think will happen at the next election, then it should allow all the options.

Within the last twelve months we have had a period when Gordon Brown looked unassailable to a position where the tories are currently well ahead.

With up to two years to go before the next election anything is possible.

by Neil on May 9, 2008 at 8:02 pm. Reply #

All very interesting for yesterday, today & possibly next week.What this does show is that the public are very volatile – increasingly so.To draw conclusions about an election two years away would be foolish (a week is along time etc etc)& as we all know that under our corrupt system its not how many votes you get – its where you get them. Still all to play for.

by Greenfield on May 10, 2008 at 10:06 am. Reply #

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