LDV local election competition – the scores on the doors

by Stephen Tall on May 1, 2008

Last week we published our Lib Dem Voice competition to predict the results of the local and London mayoral elections taking place tomorrow, 1st May, and win a limited edition LDV mug. The thread is here, and, to date, we’ve received 20 entries from LDV readers (who may or may not be Lib Dem members).

Here’s the average of what you’ve so far predicted:
– The Lib Dems stand to make a net loss of 34 seats in the local elections across England and Wales;
– The Lib Dems will poll a national equivalent vote of 23%, compared with Labour’s 24% and the Tories’ 42%.
– Boris Johnson will edge the London mayoral contest on first preferences, with 41% to 35% for incumbent Ken Livingstone, with Brian Paddick on 13%.

It’s interesting to compare this with The Times’s Sam Coates’ predictions for the Lib Dems on his Red Box blog:

Liberal Democrats say: Net loss, possibly around 80-100 seats. They say 25 per cent share would be “quite hard” although they regularly poll six points above their national share in the opinion polls. Losses to the Tories in rural areas. Focusing on possible gains in Sheffield, Cardiff and Hull. Could lose Liverpool, with just two losses meaning it is a hung council. Opponents: Tories should make 300 gains, Labour around 160 losses.

If you’ve not yet made your predictions, there’s still chance: entries posted before close of polls tomorrow will be valid.