Ming lays odds on date of next general election

by Stephen Tall on July 26, 2007

Clearly the Lib Dem leader has been putting a lot of thought into this, and has shared with BBC Online the following order of likelihood of the date of the next general election:

October 2007 – 15%
May 2008 – 35%
May 2009 – 50%

Well, as Alan Hansen would say, you’ve got to play percentages.

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I think we should be careful using language such as ‘the public tend to vote one way or another’. It is suggestive that he believes we are in a two party system. Maybe I read too much into it. But I’d be intrigued to hear the reasons behind these predictions.

by Sam Payne on July 26, 2007 at 12:45 pm. Reply #

According to the BBC, Ming’s percentages don’t add up. He said it was “one in 6 chance for this year, 35% for next and 50% for the year after”. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t that add up to 101.67%?

by Detail Seeker on July 26, 2007 at 2:10 pm. Reply #


by Benjamin on July 26, 2007 at 4:35 pm. Reply #

June 2009 – 100%

by Chris Paul on July 26, 2007 at 5:58 pm. Reply #

If Ming is going to shout the odds, maybe he should start contributing to politicalbetting.com.

(Or maybe he already is!)

by David Langshaw on July 26, 2007 at 11:17 pm. Reply #

If he is gambling on Political Betting and giving his odds, he could be accused of bet fixing!

by Tom Papworth on July 26, 2007 at 11:41 pm. Reply #

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