Prediction competition: place your free bets here

by Stephen Tall on July 16, 2007

What do you think will happen this Thursday, 19th July, in the crunch by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield?

Will Labour cling on in one, both or neither seats? And which of the two main opposition parties, the Lib Dems or the Tories, will fare best? The political blogosphere has been humming these past couple of weeks with pundits on all sides arguing the toss.

But now’s the moment to put your credibility on the line, online, and to say what you think will actually happen this Thursday. There are no prizes on offer – merely the respect and admiration of friend and foe.

For each by-election, please:

a) Predict the percentage turnout (you lose a point for each % you are out by);
b) Give the name of the party you think will win, and their margin of victory in % (lose 20 points for the wrong party, and a point for each % you are out by);
c) Predict the absolute number of votes the Lib Dems will get, and the party’s % vote (lose a point for each 100 votes you’re out by, and lose a point for each % you are out by).

For the record, please note the highest score wins.

The competition is open to all – I’d be especially interested in Lord Rennard’s prediction – so Tories are welcome to join in the fun. Though if you can remember to use your own name, rather than fake a Lib Dem member’s identity just ‘cos it’s the internet and you can, we’d be much obliged.

To help you along, here are the results from the 2005 general election:

Ealing Southall
Labour: 22,937 (48.8%)
Nigel Bakhai, Liberal Democrat: 11,497 (24.4)
Conservative: 10,147 (21.6)
Green: 2,175 (4.6)
Workers’ Revolutionary Party 289 (0.6)
Labour majority: 11,440
Turnout: 56.2 %

Labour: 24,429 (58.9%)
Conservative 5,972 (14.4)
Robert Browne, Liberal Democrat: 4,935 (11.9)
Independent: 4,252 (10.2)
UK Independence Party: 646 (1.6)
National Front 253 (0.6)
Others: 996 (2.3)
Labour majority: 18,457
Turnout: 62.2 %

And remember: it’s just a bit of fun…