Posts Tagged “yougov”

Lib Dem poll ratings – why I’m putting my trust in ICM

by Stephen Tall on March 3, 2015

Occasionally, when I see the latest poll showing the Lib Dems’ poll rating dribbling along at 6-8%, I wonder if I was stupidly over-optimistic when I nailed my colours to the mast with my prediction in January that the party (…)

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Fixed-term parliaments: 56% of voters support them, finds YouGov

by Stephen Tall on December 17, 2014

I’ve written before about the fact I like fixed-term parliaments: In praise of 5-year fixed-term parliaments. You may remember that a few years ago, former Cambridge MP David Howarth tried to introduce them. Then in the Coalition Agreement, they became reality. YouGov has asked the public what they think about them, and you can see […]

Our worst nightmare? Peter Kellner’s scenario 3: “Lib Dems choose who’s the PM”

by Stephen Tall on December 16, 2014

Just over a year ago I wrote a piece titled Nightmare scenarios: what are the 2015 election results the Lib Dems, Tories and Labour most dread? In it, I argued that the trickiest prospect for the Lib Dems would be an evenly poised general election outcome in which the Lib Dems held the balance of […]

40% of the British public wants the Lib Dems to poll higher than now at the general election, YouGov finds

by Stephen Tall on November 27, 2014

Here’s an interesting survey finding via YouGov. The pollster asked the following (slightly awkwardly worded) question: The Lib Dems are currently between 6% to 11% in the opinion polls. At the next general election, might the Lib Dems get closer to their previous several elections? Their average for the past five elections is around 19%. […]

The ‘nowcast’ for May 2015 which gives the Lib Dems 28 MPs

by Stephen Tall on November 25, 2014

Over at the polling website May2015 (part of the New Statesman stable) Matt Singh has asked the straightforward question, ‘How are the Lib Dems polling and will they survive in May 2015?’ Except it isn’t all that straightforward… First, there’s the issue that the different polling companies don’t agree on what the current Lib Dem […]

What the YouGov profiler says about Lib Dems

by Stephen Tall on November 18, 2014

Market research firm YouGov poll a lot of people about a lot of things. As a result they have a data trove which they’ve turned into a visualisation tool which can profile a typical customer for any given brand… including if that ‘brand’ is the Lib Dems. Before I get to the fascinating screenshots, and […]

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

by Stephen Tall on November 7, 2014

There are three key things about opinion polls. The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations. The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.) The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by […]

Immigration: are you more clued-up than British public?

by Stephen Tall on November 3, 2014

Here’s your starter for three: People sometimes talk about ‘net immigration’, meaning the difference between the number of people coming to Britain each year to live, and the number leaving Britain to live in another country. What do you think is the current level of net immigration into Britain? If you are not sure, please […]

Liberal Hero of the Week #78: Laura Sandys

by Stephen Tall on October 24, 2014

Liberal Hero of the Week (and occasional Villains) is chosen by Stephen Tall, Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and Research Associate at CentreForum.  Laura Sandys Conservative MP for South Thanet Reason: for being “a proud extreme moderate” Let me be clear in my nomination. Saying you’re a moderate, a centrist, is not the same as […]

ICM has Labour ahead, Ukip moving into 3rd place, Lib Dems on 11%

by Stephen Tall on October 15, 2014

The Guardian published its latest ICM poll — commonly regarded as the ‘gold standard’ — this week. The top-line (with changes on the previous months) was: Labour 35% (=), Conservatives 31% (-2), Ukip 14% (+5), Lib Dems 11% (+1) and Others 10% (-3). Polling in September/October tends to fluctuate, as the noise of conference season […]



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