Posts Tagged “ukip”
Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”
by Stephen Tall on May 21, 2013
Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting: Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov) Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG) Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG) Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG) As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most [...]
Where Ukip won (or almost won) on 2nd May 2013
by Stephen Tall on May 14, 2013
Wondering where Ukip won (or almost won – see below) in the local elections on Thursday, 2nd May? Then here’s a handy graphic and breakdown by constituency… My thanks to Lib Dem Ben Mathis (@binny_uk) for crunching the Ukip numbers, as below. We’ll update the list with any more found… LINCOLNSHIRE Boston & Skegness Con [...]
Ukip surge to 18% in latest ICM poll: Lib Dems at 11%
by Stephen Tall on May 13, 2013
ICM: the pollster Lib Dems love and rely on the most. Maybe not tonight, though. Here’s The Guardian’s graph and report: Ukip’s 18% is the best it has achieved with any pollster in any of the surveys logged at UK Polling Report. It is all the more remarkable for ICM, whose careful adjustments for voters [...]
A Tory-Ukip pact? Up to you, guys. But you do know there’s an easier way, right?
by Stephen Tall on May 6, 2013
Ukip’s spectacular showing at last week’s local elections has got the Tories spooked. The full realisation is sinking in that this may not be a one-off eruption of popular protest. Nigel Farage’s band of modern-life-is-rubbish disciples will likely top next year’s Euro polls. Such momentum may propel them towards a double-digit general election performance in [...]
Timothy Garton Ash is right: there is only one logical way for me to vote in 2015 – for the Conservatives
by Stephen Tall on April 23, 2013
Timothy Garton Ash wrote recently in the Financial Times of the looming — and profoundly paradoxical — choice facing the British voters at the 2015 general election in two years’ time: If … your priority is the unity of the (…)
Ukip if you want to in last Gasper saloon
by Stephen Tall on January 18, 2013
As I mentioned just last May: Sadly I don’t have the pleasure of standing against Ukip candidate Dr Julia Gasper — who has said people who ‘choose’ to be gay should stop ‘complaining about persecution’ — in the elections to (…)
Chris Davies wades into Ukip foster care row. Why?
by Stephen Tall on January 16, 2013
A couple of months ago you may recall a big row when it was alleged three eastern European children were removed from their foster parents by Rotherham council because the couple were members of Ukip. Lib Dem MEP Chris Davies certainly recalls it. And on Monday he made a one-minute speech in the European Parliament [...]
So you think Ukip are the new third party? Let’s have a look at the data…
by Stephen Tall on January 1, 2013
Food for thought for John Rentoul (who calls Ukip ‘The new third party’ here), courtesy of PoliticalBetting’s Mike Smithson: Aggregate vote shares from all 198 local by-elections in 2012 show: CON 33.74: LAB 29.22: LD 19.15: UKIP 6.13 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2013 (Hat-tip: Vote Clegg, Get Clegg Facebook page.) * Stephen [...]
Did you know the Lib Dems have lost half a million voters to Ukip? Here’s what I think it means.
by Stephen Tall on December 18, 2012
Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft — who, as ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie has noted before, spends more on polling than all three parties combined — has today published the latest survey looking at the timely issue of the threat of Ukip. Nigel Farage’s party is now regularly polling around the level of the Lib Dems, seemingly taking [...]
The Oxford Ukip candidate who says people who ‘choose’ to be gay should stop ‘complaining about persecution’
by Stephen Tall on May 1, 2012
Sadly I don’t have the pleasure of standing against Ukip candidate Dr Julia Gasper — who has said people who ‘choose’ to be gay should stop ‘complaining about persecution’ — in the elections to Oxford City Council this Thursday. That (…)
