Posts Tagged “tim smith”

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

by Stephen Tall on August 4, 2014

With the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour […]