Posts Tagged “Polls”

Latest ICM poll: Lib Dems at 12% for Westminster, but just 6% in the Euros

by Stephen Tall on April 15, 2014

As I’ve mentioned before, The Guardian’s ICM poll is the one I wait for each month. The latest figures are now up, and the figures are… well, I’m not sure what to make of them really. In the snapshot of Westminster voting intentions, the Lib Dems are unchanged from last month on 12%, ahead of […]

Nick v Nigel: the polls call it for Farage. Disappointing, but don’t panic! Here’s 3 reasons why you shouldn’t…

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Last week we had one post-debate poll. It showed Farage won overall, but the split was more interesting: Labour and Lib Dem voters went for Nick, Tory and Ukippers for Nigel. As you’d probably expect. This week we had two post-debate polls, and their results are remarkably similar. ICM says Clegg was reckoned to have […]

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year. (NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on […]

Latest Euro poll shows how, in this May’s elections, every %-age point matters for the Lib Dems

by Stephen Tall on March 28, 2014

Interest in the outcome of May’s European elections is picking up, at least judged by the number of polls the newspapers are commissioning – four have been published in the last fortnight. Here’s the average support for the parties: Labour – 30% Ukip – 26% Conservative – 24% Lib Dems – 9% Converting that into […]

New poll: Voters credit low-earner tax-cuts to Lib Dems, Clegg’s ratings spike following Farage debate challenge

by Stephen Tall on March 13, 2014

Here’s a poll finding that will relieve Lib Dems and worry Tories – according to Ipsos-Mori more voters (45%) credit the Lib Dems with the Coalition’s tax-cuts than credit the Tories (33%): The findings are in line with some of the Lib Dems’ own private polling I’ve seen. While it might seem self-evident to Lib […]

Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems – but it’s not all bad news…

by Stephen Tall on February 27, 2014

Some interesting poll data from Ipsos-Mori who were asked by British Future to look at attitudes towards voting for the four main political parties. Here’s three points that stood out for the Lib Dems: Four-in-10 voters would never consider voting for the Lib Dems, Conservatives or Ukip. Labour is less unpopular: one-in-three voters would never […]

Another Coalition? 1-in-5 of the public likes the idea, but is divided between Lib-Lab and Lib-Con pact

by Stephen Tall on February 21, 2014

Nick Clegg sparked a flurry of Coalition speculation this week, with his (relatively) warm words towards Labour on a BBC Radio 4 documentary this week. Everyone’s had their say – but what does the public think? YouGov has polled them to ask… The first question asked which option folk would like to see after the […]

Official: Lib Dem voters least bothered about penis size

by Stephen Tall on February 14, 2014

Kudos to YouGov for coming up with the most outrageously crow-barred poll finding to mark Valentine’s Day – that Lib Dem voters are least likely to think that penis size matters. The findings are not surprising. After all, we’ve always wanted proportional representation. We’ve always been wary of sudden swings to the left or right. […]

Must-read analysis from Peter Kellner on where the 5 million missing 2010 Lib Dem voters have gone

by Stephen Tall on February 11, 2014

A fascinating piece of polling research from YouGov’s Peter Kellner in today’s Guardian, looking at how votes have churned since the 2010 general election. My working assumption looking at the headline poll ratings has been that there’s been relatively little movement between Labour and the Conservatives, with most of the movement from the Lib Dems […]

Lewis Baston on the polls and ‘How the Lib Dems will actually do’

by Stephen Tall on February 1, 2014

I wrote last October about election expert Lewis Baston’s forecast for the next election, based on his analysis not only of the polls, but also of the trends in the ‘swing seats’, the battlegrounds which, in a first-past-the-post voting system, actually matter. His forecast for May 2015 was that Labour would edge the Tories by […]



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