Posts Tagged “Polls”

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

by Stephen Tall on November 7, 2014

There are three key things about opinion polls. The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations. The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.) The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by […]

Immigration: are you more clued-up than the British public?

by Stephen Tall on November 3, 2014

Here’s your starter for three: People sometimes talk about ‘net immigration’, meaning the difference between the number of people coming to Britain each year to live, and the number leaving Britain to live in another country. What do you think is the current level of net immigration into Britain? If you are not sure, please […]

Immigration: are you more clued-up than British public?

by Stephen Tall on November 3, 2014

Here’s your starter for three: People sometimes talk about ‘net immigration’, meaning the difference between the number of people coming to Britain each year to live, and the number leaving Britain to live in another country. What do you think is the current level of net immigration into Britain? If you are not sure, please […]

Mori’s Sir Bob Worcester increases his forecast for Lib Dem seats in May 2015

by Stephen Tall on October 16, 2014

Yes, you read that headline right: founder of MORI, Sir Bob Worcester, increased his forecast of how many seats the Lib Dems would win in May 2015 when asked for a prediction at last week’s Lib Dem conference. I’ll be honest, though: I don’t think he meant to. Last year, you may recall he predicted […]

ICM has Labour ahead, Ukip moving into 3rd place, Lib Dems on 11%

by Stephen Tall on October 15, 2014

The Guardian published its latest ICM poll — commonly regarded as the ‘gold standard’ — this week. The top-line (with changes on the previous months) was: Labour 35% (=), Conservatives 31% (-2), Ukip 14% (+5), Lib Dems 11% (+1) and Others 10% (-3). Polling in September/October tends to fluctuate, as the noise of conference season […]

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

by Stephen Tall on September 29, 2014

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the […]

The ‘Favourability Index’: the Tories and Cameron lead, Lib Dems half as popular as Ukip

by Stephen Tall on August 24, 2014

I’m a fan of polling firm ComRes’s ‘Favourability Index’ which asks of political parties and their leaders ‘How favourable or unfavourable are you to X?’ For sure it’s a simplistic binary. But, then, so’s voting. It gives a much more accurate read-out of perceptions, I think, than asking (for instance) if people think X is […]

ICM poll: Labour leads Tories by 7%, Lib Dems in third place on 12%

by Stephen Tall on August 12, 2014

What a difference a month makes. In July, the Guardian’s ICM poll – the ‘gold standard’ – showed a narrow 1% Tory lead over Labour. Fast forward to August and Labour enjoys a solid 7% lead over the Tories, by 38% to 31%. The Lib Dems are in third place, unchanged on 12%, with Ukip […]

Ukip may well win a seat in May 2015. But the least likely person to get elected is Nigel Farage

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

This week saw the latest in Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the marginal battleground seats that will decide the result of the next general election. This crop focused on 14 marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour are in second place. The overall news was half-encouraging for Labour. As it stands, Ed Miliband’s party is poised to win […]

Good news: Voters places themselves and the Lib Dems in the centre. Bad news: that doesn’t mean they’re liberals

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

“There’s no future for the Lib Dems as a party of the centre,” goes the cry from radicals on both wings of our party. So I was interested to see this polling data from YouGov (hat-tip Adam Corlett) looking at where voters place themselves on the left-right axis and where they place the parties and […]



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