Posts Tagged “Polls”

The ‘Favourability Index’: the Tories and Cameron lead, Lib Dems half as popular as Ukip

by Stephen Tall on August 24, 2014

I’m a fan of polling firm ComRes’s ‘Favourability Index’ which asks of political parties and their leaders ‘How favourable or unfavourable are you to X?’ For sure it’s a simplistic binary. But, then, so’s voting. It gives a much more accurate read-out of perceptions, I think, than asking (for instance) if people think X is […]

ICM poll: Labour leads Tories by 7%, Lib Dems in third place on 12%

by Stephen Tall on August 12, 2014

What a difference a month makes. In July, the Guardian’s ICM poll – the ‘gold standard’ – showed a narrow 1% Tory lead over Labour. Fast forward to August and Labour enjoys a solid 7% lead over the Tories, by 38% to 31%. The Lib Dems are in third place, unchanged on 12%, with Ukip […]

Ukip may well win a seat in May 2015. But the least likely person to get elected is Nigel Farage

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

This week saw the latest in Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the marginal battleground seats that will decide the result of the next general election. This crop focused on 14 marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour are in second place. The overall news was half-encouraging for Labour. As it stands, Ed Miliband’s party is poised to win […]

Good news: Voters places themselves and the Lib Dems in the centre. Bad news: that doesn’t mean they’re liberals

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

“There’s no future for the Lib Dems as a party of the centre,” goes the cry from radicals on both wings of our party. So I was interested to see this polling data from YouGov (hat-tip Adam Corlett) looking at where voters place themselves on the left-right axis and where they place the parties and […]

The Lib Dems’ ‘bedroom tax’ U-turn: new poll on what the voters think about it

by Stephen Tall on July 20, 2014

The Lib Dems announced a few days ago the party’s 2015 manifesto would propose reform of the ‘bedroom tax’ / ‘spare room subsidy’, which would means no tenant would have any of their housing benefit withdrawn unless they had turned down an offer of a smaller property. It was a long overdue climbdown – as […]

ICM poll: Tories edge ahead of Labour, while Ukip collapse to 4th behind Lib Dems

by Stephen Tall on July 17, 2014

Amidst all the reshuffle excitement, I didn’t get chance to report the latest ICM poll – regarded by pundits as the ‘gold standard’ – for The Guardian, published on Tuesday. It shows the Tories a nose ahead of Labour, 34% to 33%, with Ukip slumping to fourth place (9%) behind the Lib Dems on 12%. […]

What links Jeremy Hunt and Peter Lilley? (Tip: If you’re not sure who they are, that’s the clue.)

by Stephen Tall on July 9, 2014

Who’s the most famous cabinet minister? And who’s the least famous? That’s what YouGov set out to find out by inviting its representative sample of the public to type in the name, unprompted, of the post-holder of six senior cabinet positions. Here’s what they found… So Iain Duncan Smith (36% correctly naming him as Work […]

Ashcroft battlegrounds poll: Lib Dems set to lose four marginal seats to Labour

by Stephen Tall on July 6, 2014

The second of Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft’s polls of Lib Dem marginal seats was published this week, focusing on four of our battlegrounds with Labour: Norwich South (held by Simon Wright), Bradford East (David Ward), Brent Central (Sarah Teather standing down, Ibrahim Taguri selected), and Manchester Withington (John Leech). Also included was Brighton Pavilion, which […]

Poll of school leaders and governors: Don’t like Coalition’s education policies – BUT do like Lib Dem Pupil Premium and infant free school meals

by Stephen Tall on June 27, 2014

A couple of findings worth highlighting from a major survey of more than 2,000 school leaders and governors, commissioned by The Key, and carried out by polling firm Ipsos Mori. It probably won’t come as a surprise to discover that the Coalition’s performance on education is viewed unfavourably: three-quarters of school leaders (75%) are dissatisfied […]

Ashcroft battlegrounds poll: both Tories and Lib Dems down on 2010, but it’s the Tories who’d make gains

by Stephen Tall on June 19, 2014

Lord Aschroft, the Tory peer and pollster, has published the results of a large survey of 17 Lib Dem / Conservative battleground seats. Six are Tory-held seats where the Lib Dems were runners-up in 2010; 11 are Lib Dem-held seats where the Tories were runners-up. Across those seats the voting intention (compared with the 2010 […]



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