Posts Tagged “Polls”

The polls in 2014: what they show with 133 days left til 7 May 2015

by Stephen Tall on December 24, 2014

The final polls of the year have been published — getting on for 500 have been commissioned in 2014 — and their story is told in the graph below. It shows Labour’s declining (down from c.38% to c.33%), the Tories static (at c.32%), Ukip on the rise (up from c.12% to c.16%), and the Lib […]

Reasons to be careful about new analysis suggesting Lib Dems “set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict”

by Stephen Tall on December 9, 2014

A new analysis by Oxford academic Stephen Fisher (a member of the team which was behind the scarily accurate BBC/ITN exit poll at the 2010 election) douses the comfort blanket to which many of us Lib Dems have been clinging, suggesting as it does that the Lib Dems are losing more votes in our strongest […]

Latest Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem seats: MP incumbency protects party in 10 out of 13 constituencies

by Stephen Tall on November 27, 2014

The Conservative peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has released the results of his latest polling of key seats for the next general election, including 13 seats currently held by the Lib Dems and one (Watford) which the party is actively targeting. These seats are ones with bigger majorities than those he’s previously surveyed, and include […]

40% of the British public wants the Lib Dems to poll higher than now at the general election, YouGov finds

by Stephen Tall on November 27, 2014

Here’s an interesting survey finding via YouGov. The pollster asked the following (slightly awkwardly worded) question: The Lib Dems are currently between 6% to 11% in the opinion polls. At the next general election, might the Lib Dems get closer to their previous several elections? Their average for the past five elections is around 19%. […]

The ‘nowcast’ for May 2015 which gives the Lib Dems 28 MPs

by Stephen Tall on November 25, 2014

Over at the polling website May2015 (part of the New Statesman stable) Matt Singh has asked the straightforward question, ‘How are the Lib Dems polling and will they survive in May 2015?’ Except it isn’t all that straightforward… First, there’s the issue that the different polling companies don’t agree on what the current Lib Dem […]

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

by Stephen Tall on November 7, 2014

There are three key things about opinion polls. The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations. The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.) The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by […]

Immigration: are you more clued-up than British public?

by Stephen Tall on November 3, 2014

Here’s your starter for three: People sometimes talk about ‘net immigration’, meaning the difference between the number of people coming to Britain each year to live, and the number leaving Britain to live in another country. What do you think is the current level of net immigration into Britain? If you are not sure, please […]

Mori’s Sir Bob Worcester increases his forecast for Lib Dem seats in May 2015

by Stephen Tall on October 16, 2014

Yes, you read that headline right: founder of MORI, Sir Bob Worcester, increased his forecast of how many seats the Lib Dems would win in May 2015 when asked for a prediction at last week’s Lib Dem conference. I’ll be honest, though: I don’t think he meant to. Last year, you may recall he predicted […]

ICM has Labour ahead, Ukip moving into 3rd place, Lib Dems on 11%

by Stephen Tall on October 15, 2014

The Guardian published its latest ICM poll — commonly regarded as the ‘gold standard’ — this week. The top-line (with changes on the previous months) was: Labour 35% (=), Conservatives 31% (-2), Ukip 14% (+5), Lib Dems 11% (+1) and Others 10% (-3). Polling in September/October tends to fluctuate, as the noise of conference season […]

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

by Stephen Tall on September 29, 2014

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the […]



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