Posts Tagged “peter kellner”

Peter Kellner’s 5 reasons why the fundamentals favour the Tories in 2015

by Stephen Tall on April 14, 2014

Peter Kellner today assesses the lie of the polling land – and concludes it’s looking good for the Conservatives. This in spite of the fact they still trail Labour by around 5% in most polls. Why? He lists 5 fundamentals (…)

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Must-read analysis from Peter Kellner on where the 5 million missing 2010 Lib Dem voters have gone

by Stephen Tall on February 11, 2014

A fascinating piece of polling research from YouGov’s Peter Kellner in today’s Guardian, looking at how votes have churned since the 2010 general election. My working assumption looking at the headline poll ratings has been that there’s been relatively little movement between Labour and the Conservatives, with most of the movement from the Lib Dems […]

CentreForum Liberal Hero of the Week #41: Peter Mandelson

by Stephen Tall on July 5, 2013

Liberal Hero of the Week (and occasional Villains) is chosen by Stephen Tall, Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and Research Associate at CentreForum.  Lord (Peter) Mandelson Former Labour cabinet minister and éminence grise Reason: for voicing concerns that HS2 ‘could be an expensive mistake’ Three cheers for Peter Mandelson! That’s not a sentence I expected […]

The double dip recession that never was?

by Stephen Tall on May 11, 2013

Did the double-dip recession ever happen? It looks increasingly possible that it didn’t — the BBC reports the latest revision to the data: A revision by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has cast doubt on the UK’s double-dip recession last year. Revised growth estimates now suggest the construction industry shrank in the first quarter [...]

Three things we’ve learned from today’s opinion polls

by Stephen Tall on February 11, 2013

Three interesting and important poll findings to report today… Big lead for Labour according to ICM First, the Guardian’s monthly ICM poll is out, showing the biggest Labour lead in almost a decade: Labour 41% (+3%) Conservatives 29% (-4%) Lib Dems 13% (-2%) Ukip 9% (+3%) Others 8% (+1%) The movements are more or less [...]

So, about that Lib Dem wipeout in 2015 then…

by Stephen Tall on January 9, 2013

Ask most commentators about Lib Dem prospects at the next general election and a couple of words are sure to crop up sooner or later: either ‘wipeout’ or ‘annihilation’. I understand why. Look at the opinion polls and the party is bobbing around the 10% mark. Compare that to the 23% we won in 2010, [...]

Did you know the Lib Dems have lost half a million voters to Ukip? Here’s what I think it means.

by Stephen Tall on December 18, 2012

Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft — who, as ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie has noted before, spends more on polling than all three parties combined — has today published the latest survey looking at the timely issue of the threat of Ukip. Nigel Farage’s party is now regularly polling around the level of the Lib Dems, seemingly taking [...]

Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

by Stephen Tall on December 15, 2012

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from the 50+ I’ve linked to from my Delcicious account this last week… Groundhog year – Peter Kellner examines the polls to find how 12 months’ political turmoil has shifted popular opinion. The answer — not at all: ‘public reaction [...]

Your essential weekend reader — 8 must-read articles you may have missed

by Stephen Tall on October 20, 2012

It’s Saturday morning, so here are eight thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices… Three big things I’ve got wrong since I’ve starting blogging and commenting – ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie confesses to a trio of big errors on the NHS, higher-rate tax and equalities: “One of the many reasons I don’t want to be an [...]

The 15 words that mean the Coalition won’t fall, no matter what happens to Lords reform

by Stephen Tall on July 9, 2012

There’s a very simple reason why — even if enough Tory MPs inflict the Coalition’s first defeat on a key plank of the Coalition Agreement which appeared in their last three manifestos — the Government will not fall tomorrow. It’s these 15 words from the May 2010 Programme for Government: The deficit reduction programme takes [...]



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