Posts Tagged “opinion polls”

Cliffs AND ledges. The Lib Dem polling plunge, 2010-15, explained

by Stephen Tall on June 10, 2015

Mark Pack has a typically insightful blog-post asking from when can we date the Lib Dems’ election catastrophe — from the moment the Coalition deal was signed, or as a result of specific events within the Coalition? Here’s the metaphor (…)

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“Comfort polling”, Lord Ashcroft? Okay, here’s a simple challenge then

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2015

Right at the top, I want to say I’m a fan of Lord Ashcroft’s seat-specific polling. It would’ve been easy for him as a Conservative peer to calibrate his constituency surveys deliberately to undermine the Lib Dems — already written off by (…)

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Lib Dem private polling v Lord Ashcroft’s polling (PLUS the sting in the tail for the party)

by Stephen Tall on March 10, 2015

I have a piece on today’s Times Red Box blog looking at Lib Dem prospects for this May’s election: Ignore the Liberal Democrats at your peril – and don’t write them off. Here’s its premise: There is a new fear which (…)

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Which 9 Lord Ashcroft constituency polls are wrong?

by Stephen Tall on March 6, 2015

So far, Lord Ashcroft’s £million-plus polling spree has brought us 177 individual constituency polls. Which leads me to my question: which 9 of them are wrong? The reason why I ask that is simple. Reputable opinion polls like Ashcroft’s are (…)

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Lib Dem poll ratings – why I’m putting my trust in ICM

by Stephen Tall on March 3, 2015

Occasionally, when I see the latest poll showing the Lib Dems’ poll rating dribbling along at 6-8%, I wonder if I was stupidly over-optimistic when I nailed my colours to the mast with my prediction in January that the party (…)

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Two-party politics is dead: the Labservatives now trail the Other Parties

by Stephen Tall on December 9, 2014

The FT Data blog charts the decline of The Parties Formerly Known As The Two Main Parties: People in the UK are more likely to support a third party rather than vote Conservative or Labour in the general election next (…)

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Peter Kellner’s 5 reasons why the fundamentals favour the Tories in 2015

by Stephen Tall on April 14, 2014

Peter Kellner today assesses the lie of the polling land – and concludes it’s looking good for the Conservatives. This in spite of the fact they still trail Labour by around 5% in most polls. Why? He lists 5 fundamentals (…)

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Why there isn’t a British Nate Silver

by Stephen Tall on November 8, 2012

A skim-read of Wednesday morning’s headlines might have left folk confused as to who had been declared the victor of the US presidential election: Barack Obama or Nate Silver. For those who don’t know Nate Silver, he’s the analytical guru behind the FiveThirtyEight blog (named after the number of electoral college votes), now housed at […]

Lords Ashcroft’s Corby poll (and my predictions therefrom…)

by Stephen Tall on October 23, 2012

Today saw the publication by Lord Ashcroft of an opinion poll he’s funded to find out the likely result at the forthcoming parliamentary by-election in Corby: ‘Labour take 22-point lead in Corby’. I tweeted my insta-verdict: it suggests Labour will (…)

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LDVideo: Understanding how opinion polls work, Yes Minister-style

by Stephen Tall on August 7, 2011

Are for the re-introduction of national service, or against it? In this clip Yes Minister explains how you can hold both views simultaneously…

(Also available on YouTube here.)