Posts Tagged “nate silver”

Nate Silver, Donald Trump and the polls (AKA: question data, doubt certainty)

by Stephen Tall on November 9, 2016

Embed from Getty Images I’m shocked, stunned and just a little bit scared. So I’m not going even to attempt to write something coherent about President-elect Trump. While Brexit made things uncertain for the UK, the US election has made (…)

Read the rest of this entry »

Opinion polls yadda yadda. OR “Does Nate Silver mean nothing to you? Did he write in vain?”

by Stephen Tall on May 21, 2013

Two new polls last night: the daily YouGov tracker and the first post-local elections poll from Survation. The spread is interesting: Labour: 35% (Survation 39% (YouGov) Conservatives: 24% (S), 31% (YG) Lib Dems: 11% (S), 10% (YG) Ukip: 22% (S), 14% (YG) As Anthony Wells points out, Survation asks whether people will vote Ukip (most […]

Your essential weekend reader — 12 must-read articles you may have missed

by Stephen Tall on December 22, 2012

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from the 50+ I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here. Kings, queens and the political chess match – Sue Cameron ponders what the invitation to HM The Queen to attend cabinet this week could […]

Why there isn’t a British Nate Silver

by Stephen Tall on November 8, 2012

A skim-read of Wednesday morning’s headlines might have left folk confused as to who had been declared the victor of the US presidential election: Barack Obama or Nate Silver. For those who don’t know Nate Silver, he’s the analytical guru behind the FiveThirtyEight blog (named after the number of electoral college votes), now housed at […]

Lords Ashcroft’s Corby poll (and my predictions therefrom…)

by Stephen Tall on October 23, 2012

Today saw the publication by Lord Ashcroft of an opinion poll he’s funded to find out the likely result at the forthcoming parliamentary by-election in Corby: ‘Labour take 22-point lead in Corby’. I tweeted my insta-verdict: it suggests Labour will (…)

Read the rest of this entry »

One last polling prediction (and it shows Lib Dems with over 100 MPs)

by Stephen Tall on May 6, 2010

Just two hours until the exit polls have their say, but if you can’t wait for that … Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com site has run through pretty much every poll result permutation to come up with a range of projections as to how the House of Commons will look on 7th May.
Here’s their official final […]

Pollwatch Day 21 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in second place, at 28-31%, in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on April 26, 2010

Four polls published tonight, as follows:

ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-2), LAB 28%(+2), LIB DEM 30%(-1)
Opinium in the Express … CON 34%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
ComRes for ITV/Independent … CON 32%(-2), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 31%(+2)
YouGov in the Sun … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)

All movement is within the margin of […]



You might also likeclose
Plugin from the creators ofBrindes :: More at PlulzWordpress Plugins