Posts Tagged “lord ashcroft”

“Comfort polling”, Lord Ashcroft? Okay, here’s a simple challenge then

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2015

Right at the top, I want to say I’m a fan of Lord Ashcroft’s seat-specific polling. It would’ve been easy for him as a Conservative peer to calibrate his constituency surveys deliberately to undermine the Lib Dems — already written off by (…)

Read the rest of this entry »

Lib Dem private polling v Lord Ashcroft’s polling (PLUS the sting in the tail for the party)

by Stephen Tall on March 10, 2015

I have a piece on today’s Times Red Box blog looking at Lib Dem prospects for this May’s election: Ignore the Liberal Democrats at your peril – and don’t write them off. Here’s its premise: There is a new fear which (…)

Read the rest of this entry »

Which 9 Lord Ashcroft constituency polls are wrong?

by Stephen Tall on March 6, 2015

So far, Lord Ashcroft’s £million-plus polling spree has brought us 177 individual constituency polls. Which leads me to my question: which 9 of them are wrong? The reason why I ask that is simple. Reputable opinion polls like Ashcroft’s are (…)

Read the rest of this entry »

Reasons to be careful about new analysis suggesting Lib Dems “set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict”

by Stephen Tall on December 9, 2014

A new analysis by Oxford academic Stephen Fisher (a member of the team which was behind the scarily accurate BBC/ITN exit poll at the 2010 election) douses the comfort blanket to which many of us Lib Dems have been clinging, suggesting as it does that the Lib Dems are losing more votes in our strongest […]

Latest Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem seats: MP incumbency protects party in 10 out of 13 constituencies

by Stephen Tall on November 27, 2014

The Conservative peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has released the results of his latest polling of key seats for the next general election, including 13 seats currently held by the Lib Dems and one (Watford) which the party is actively targeting. These seats are ones with bigger majorities than those he’s previously surveyed, and include […]

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

by Stephen Tall on November 7, 2014

There are three key things about opinion polls. The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations. The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.) The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by […]

Ashcroft’s poll of Lib Dem battleground seats: incumbency is alive and well but 2015 will be a survival election for the party

by Stephen Tall on September 29, 2014

Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft has published his latest set of constituency findings. He polled some of the key Lib Dem / Tory and Lib Dem / Labour battlegrounds in the summer – he’s now followed that up by looking at a further 22 seats. Of these, 2 are Lib Dem targets, 15 the […]

Ukip may well win a seat in May 2015. But the least likely person to get elected is Nigel Farage

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

This week saw the latest in Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the marginal battleground seats that will decide the result of the next general election. This crop focused on 14 marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour are in second place. The overall news was half-encouraging for Labour. As it stands, Ed Miliband’s party is poised to win […]

Ashcroft battlegrounds poll: Lib Dems set to lose four marginal seats to Labour

by Stephen Tall on July 6, 2014

The second of Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft’s polls of Lib Dem marginal seats was published this week, focusing on four of our battlegrounds with Labour: Norwich South (held by Simon Wright), Bradford East (David Ward), Brent Central (Sarah Teather standing down, Ibrahim Taguri selected), and Manchester Withington (John Leech). Also included was Brighton Pavilion, which […]

Ashcroft battlegrounds poll: both Tories and Lib Dems down on 2010, but it’s the Tories who’d make gains

by Stephen Tall on June 19, 2014

Lord Aschroft, the Tory peer and pollster, has published the results of a large survey of 17 Lib Dem / Conservative battleground seats. Six are Tory-held seats where the Lib Dems were runners-up in 2010; 11 are Lib Dem-held seats where the Tories were runners-up. Across those seats the voting intention (compared with the 2010 […]