Posts Tagged “lewis baston”

Chart of the day: “there are no cases of a Labour opposition gaining ground over the final six months”

by Stephen Tall on December 12, 2014

Some fascinating analysis from polling buff Lewis Baston over at ConservativeHome:   Three key points stand out (to me): Labour consistently end up winning fewer votes in the general election than the polls would have suggested six months in advance. (…)

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Lewis Baston on the polls and ‘How the Lib Dems will actually do’

by Stephen Tall on February 1, 2014

I wrote last October about election expert Lewis Baston’s forecast for the next election, based on his analysis not only of the polls, but also of the trends in the ‘swing seats’, the battlegrounds which, in a first-past-the-post voting system, actually matter. His forecast for May 2015 was that Labour would edge the Tories by […]

Three scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling: which do you think looks most plausible?

by Stephen Tall on December 10, 2013

In 18 months we’ll know the result of the 2015 general election. Forecasting is a mug’s game – especially because there are an even greater number of variables this time than usual: a governing coalition of two parties with one established centre-left opposition, Labour, and an insurgent right-wing party, Ukip. But plenty are having a […]

Lewis Baston’s election 2015 forecast: Labour 36%, Conservatives 34%, Lib Dems 16%

by Stephen Tall on October 31, 2013

Lewis Baston, a research associate at Democratic Audit who is perhaps the nearest the UK comes to a Nate Silver, has published a pamphlet called Swing Seats: The key battlegrounds of the 2015 election (not available online yet). It’s a forensic analysis of the constituencies that will decide the next election, and digs much deeper […]