Posts Tagged “general election 2015”

It’s 8 May 2015. Nick Clegg’s resigned. Who speaks for the Lib Dems?

by Stephen Tall on September 9, 2014

Imagine the following scenario… At the next general election, 7th May 2015, there is a hung parliament in which the Lib Dems hold the balance of power. However, the party doesn’t do very well. Nick Clegg resigns as party leader, or at (…)

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Lib Dem pre-manifesto launched: includes policies to reform drugs laws and bus pass discount for under-21s

by Stephen Tall on September 8, 2014

Last week’s pre-manifesto launch by the Lib Dems was postponed owing to the international situation. Thankfully no important news has broken over the past couple of days which might over-shadow today’s launch. Unless, that is, you think the potential break-up of the UK or a new Royal Baby are headline-grabbing events. You can read the […]

Clacton and the Lib Dems’ post-2015 wastelands problem

by Stephen Tall on September 4, 2014

The Clacton by-election triggered by Douglas Carswell’s defection from the Tories to Ukip will take place on 9th October – David Cameron’s birthday, but also the day after the Lib Dems’ autumn conference concludes. That’s not great news for the Lib Dems on two counts. First, it means the media will likely be obsessing more […]

Postponed: Lib Dem pre-manifesto launch delayed owing to international situation

by Stephen Tall on September 3, 2014

The news of a further murder of a US hostage by ‘Islamic State’ broke last night. The Lib Dems have, therefore, decided to postpone today’s scheduled launch of the party’s pre-manifesto. The pre-manifesto is the document agreed by the Lib Dems’ elected federal policy committee (FPC) to be submitted to this autumn’s conference for approval. […]

In the next month 39 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

by Stephen Tall on August 16, 2014

Here’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Watford, on paper the 6th most winnable Tory seat for the Lib Dems, needing a swing of just 1.39%, as well as Redcar, where incumbent […]

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

by Stephen Tall on August 4, 2014

With the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour […]

Ukip may well win a seat in May 2015. But the least likely person to get elected is Nigel Farage

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

This week saw the latest in Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the marginal battleground seats that will decide the result of the next general election. This crop focused on 14 marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour are in second place. The overall news was half-encouraging for Labour. As it stands, Ed Miliband’s party is poised to win […]

Ladbrokes: “Five seats the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015?

by Stephen Tall on June 29, 2014

Yes, you read the headline right. Ladbrokes’ The Political Bookie blog this week featured five seats where, based on the betting, they reckon the Lib Dems might confound expectations… 1. Montgomeryshire. Conservative majority 1,184 “Some are expecting a turnaround with a new candidate.” Her name is Jane Dodds, selected a year ago. 2. Watford. Conservative […]

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

by Stephen Tall on June 14, 2014

We’re less than 11 months away from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats… I published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those […]

In the next month 12 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

by Stephen Tall on May 10, 2014

Here’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates: Eddisbury, 23rd May Stoke on Trent Central, 23rd May Stoke on Trent North, 23rd […]



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