Posts Tagged “general election 2015”

In the next month 39 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

by Stephen Tall on August 16, 2014

Here’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include Watford, on paper the 6th most winnable Tory seat for the Lib Dems, needing a swing of just 1.39%, as well as Redcar, where incumbent […]

Incumbency and the sophomore surge: why these two effects will matter for the Lib Dems in 2015

by Stephen Tall on August 4, 2014

With the Lib Dem vote at least halved in the polls since the last general election, there’s been much focus within the party on what’s known as the ‘incumbency effect’ – the personal vote that benefits Lib Dem MPs. This typically boosts Lib Dems by 8%, compared to 1-2% for Tories and 1.5-2.5% for Labour […]

Ukip may well win a seat in May 2015. But the least likely person to get elected is Nigel Farage

by Stephen Tall on July 24, 2014

This week saw the latest in Lord Ashcroft’s polls of the marginal battleground seats that will decide the result of the next general election. This crop focused on 14 marginal Conservative-held seats where Labour are in second place. The overall news was half-encouraging for Labour. As it stands, Ed Miliband’s party is poised to win […]

Ladbrokes: “Five seats the Lib Dems might GAIN in 2015?

by Stephen Tall on June 29, 2014

Yes, you read the headline right. Ladbrokes’ The Political Bookie blog this week featured five seats where, based on the betting, they reckon the Lib Dems might confound expectations… 1. Montgomeryshire. Conservative majority 1,184 “Some are expecting a turnaround with a new candidate.” Her name is Jane Dodds, selected a year ago. 2. Watford. Conservative […]

UPDATED: Full list of Lib Dems standing in our held seats and top 50 targets

by Stephen Tall on June 14, 2014

We’re less than 11 months away from the May 2015 election so here’s my latest running check on how candidate selection is going in our held and key target seats… I published a first draft of this list at the start of October, and asked readers to help me update it. Many thanks to those […]

In the next month 12 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

by Stephen Tall on May 10, 2014

Here’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. The following seats have selections in progress and are currently advertising for candidates: Eddisbury, 23rd May Stoke on Trent Central, 23rd May Stoke on Trent North, 23rd […]

In the next month 7 seats will short-list their wannabe Lib Dem MPs

by Stephen Tall on April 27, 2014

Here’s the full list of selection contests in the coming month available for Lib Dems on the approved parliamentary candidates’ list, together with the closing date for applications. They include North West Hampshire – where, if rumours are to be believed, the Lib Dem candidate may get to take on Boris Johnson – and my […]

Who should be the Lib Dem shadow chancellor in 2015 – Vince or Danny? Here’s what Lib Dem members think…

by Stephen Tall on April 27, 2014

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum  to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 830 party members responded – thank you – and we’re publishing the full results. Currently the Lib Dems do not have a shadow chancellor. Vince Cable […]

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year. (NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on […]

Without a shadow of a doubt: Vince Cable should be the Lib Dems’ Shadow Chancellor at the 2015 election

by Stephen Tall on March 22, 2014

One of the quirks of being in coalition is the Lib Dems no longer have a shadow chancellor. But we shall need one in time for the 2015 general election – not least for the traditional televised ‘Ask the Chancellors’ debate. There have been newspaper reports that there’s some jockeying for this position, with the […]



You might also likeclose
Plugin from the creators of Brindes :: More at Plulz Wordpress Plugins