Posts Tagged “anthony wells”

“Comfort polling”, Lord Ashcroft? Okay, here’s a simple challenge then

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2015

Right at the top, I want to say I’m a fan of Lord Ashcroft’s seat-specific polling. It would’ve been easy for him as a Conservative peer to calibrate his constituency surveys deliberately to undermine the Lib Dems — already written off by (…)

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Lib Dem poll ratings – why I’m putting my trust in ICM

by Stephen Tall on March 3, 2015

Occasionally, when I see the latest poll showing the Lib Dems’ poll rating dribbling along at 6-8%, I wonder if I was stupidly over-optimistic when I nailed my colours to the mast with my prediction in January that the party (…)

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The polls in 2014: what they show with 133 days left til 7 May 2015

by Stephen Tall on December 24, 2014

The final polls of the year have been published — getting on for 500 have been commissioned in 2014 — and their story is told in the graph below. It shows Labour’s declining (down from c.38% to c.33%), the Tories static (at c.32%), Ukip on the rise (up from c.12% to c.16%), and the Lib […]

Six months from 7th May 2015: how the polls are looking and what to look for

by Stephen Tall on November 7, 2014

There are three key things about opinion polls. The first is what matters are trends, not individual poll fluctuations. The second is they’re snapshots, not forecasts. (A point made by Lord Ashcroft, to his credit, every time he publishes his latest poll finding.) The third is the next general election won’t be decided by national party vote shares but by […]

ICM has Labour ahead, Ukip moving into 3rd place, Lib Dems on 11%

by Stephen Tall on October 15, 2014

The Guardian published its latest ICM poll — commonly regarded as the ‘gold standard’ — this week. The top-line (with changes on the previous months) was: Labour 35% (=), Conservatives 31% (-2), Ukip 14% (+5), Lib Dems 11% (+1) and Others 10% (-3). Polling in September/October tends to fluctuate, as the noise of conference season […]

Why not scrap the annual Budget?

by Stephen Tall on March 19, 2014

One of my top 3 suggestions for this year’s budget was: “Scrap the absurd twice-yearly cycle of Budgets and Autumn Statements.” It wasn’t an original idea – the economist Tim Harford suggested it a couple of years ago, arguing “It may be an enjoyable political platform but there is no economic justification for the annual […]

Should we ban opinion polls from being published in the lead-up to election day?

by Stephen Tall on November 13, 2013

One-third of MPs (including a third of Lib Dem MPs) say yes – but more are opposed. At least that’s the finding of a ComRes survey of 159 MPs in the wake of the Indian Election Commission banning exit polls in the five states holding elections this month, plus a ban on any opinion polls […]

Where Ukip won (or almost won) on 2nd May 2013

by Stephen Tall on May 14, 2013

Wondering where Ukip won (or almost won – see below) in the local elections on Thursday, 2nd May? Then here’s a handy graphic and breakdown by constituency… My thanks to Lib Dem Ben Mathis (@binny_uk) for crunching the Ukip numbers, as below. We’ll update the list with any more found… LINCOLNSHIRE Boston & Skegness Con […]

Your essential weekend reader — my personal pick of the week’s must-reads

by Stephen Tall on January 5, 2013

It’s Saturday evening, so here are twelve thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices culled from all those I’ve linked to this last week. You can follow me on Delicious here. Political predictions: as the year ends, what does 2013 hold for the main party leaders? – Andrew Rawnsley sanely assesses the 12 months to […]

Your Saturday morning reader — 8 must-read articles

by Stephen Tall on October 13, 2012

It’s Saturday morning, so here are eight thought-provoking articles to stimulate your thinking juices… No, you’re not entitled to your opinion – Patrick Stokes at The Conversation argues that proper debate relies on contested claims based on relevant expertise: just holding to your own view ain’t enough. Is The Economist left or right? – its […]



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