Updating my working… My revised 7th May, 2015, general election predictions

by Stephen Tall on May 6, 2015

Polling_station_6_may_2010It’s almost four months since I nailed my colours to the mast and predicted a hung parliament, with the Tories as the single largest party — but with no two-party coalition possible. And I’m sticking by that.

However, there are a couple of parts of my prediction I think need updating.

First, my estimate of the number of SNP MPs. My January prediction of 22 (at the time reckoned by some to be quite high!) was made before any of the Ashcroft polls of Scottish seats had been published — and as the facts have changed, so I’m changing my mind.

The political scientists’ consensus is they’ll win at least 50 of the 59 seats they’re contesting. Under an electoral system as disproportionate as first-past-the-post that’s by no means impossible. It may yet happen. But I don’t think it will. I think Labour will retain up to a dozen Scottish seats and the Lib Dems a handful, which means I’m pegging the SNP back to 43.

Secondly, my estimate of the number of Ukip MPs. My January prediction of 3 (at the time reckoned by some to be quite low!) appears to be the ceiling of Ukip ambitions. I now think that other than the shoo-in of Douglas Carswell in Clacton, Ukip may win one other seat — either Farage in Thanet South or Tim Aker in Thurrock — which means I’m pegging back Ukip to just two.

These adjustments mean my final forecast for how the UK will vote tomorrow is:

Conservatives 287 seats
Lab 263
LibDems 32
Ukip 2
Green 1
SNP 43
Plaid Cymru 3
Others 19

In terms of the popular share of the vote I’m going to guess something like:

Conservatives 35%
Labour 32%
Lib Dems 11%
Ukip 9%
Greens 3%
Others 10%

If that happens — a big if in so many ways! — I think David Cameron will have a chance to form a government and will remain as Prime Minister, initially at least. What happens after that is, at this stage, anyone’s guess.

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2 comments

[…] liberals were all waiting around for something really bad to happen. But because we are British,  we were all perfectly relaxed about it. Except then everything turned out to be much worse than we could have ever […]

by Explaining the #LibDemFightback to our international friends – By Bobby Dean | Libel on May 16, 2015 at 4:09 pm. Reply #

[…] were all waiting around for something really bad to happen. But because we are British,  we were all perfectly relaxed about it. Except then everything turned out to be much worse than we could have ever […]

by Explaining the #LibDemFightback to our international friends | Bobby Dean on May 17, 2015 at 7:57 pm. Reply #

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