by Stephen Tall on October 16, 2014
Yes, you read that headline right: founder of MORI, Sir Bob Worcester, increased his forecast of how many seats the Lib Dems would win in May 2015 when asked for a prediction at last week’s Lib Dem conference.
I’ll be honest, though: I don’t think he meant to.
Last year, you may recall he predicted the party would win 24 seats. I certainly remember: Bob Worcester forecasts Lib Dems to be reduced to 24 seats in 2015. I’ll run naked down Whitehall if that’s the result (17th Sept 2013). I further, erm, nailed my colours to the mast on the BBC’s Daily Politics: Lib Dem blogger pledge ‘to run naked down Whitehall’.
I’ll be honest again. I’m a little less cock-sure than I was a year ago. But, still, I don’t think it will be as bad as 24. And neither, apparently, does Sir Bob now: this year he forecast the Lib Dems would win 25-30 seats. I was careful to make a note of it at the time:
Bob Worcester predicting LDs to win 25-30 seats. Says he's not changed his view since last year (tho he actually said 24 last yr) #ldconf
— Stephen Tall (@stephentall) October 6, 2014
So it seems I (and the denizens of Whitehall) will be spared a sight none of us wish for next May: a disappointing poll.
* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.