by Stephen Tall on April 30, 2014
It’s the last day of April, a month which began with the second ‘Nick v Nigel’ debate and has seen 11 polls asking specifically about voting intentions in the European elections on 22nd May. Here’s what they show:
Quite a lot of movement, but the trend appears now to be that Ukip are in a clear first place above 30%, followed by Labour around 25%, then the Tories on 20%. The Lib Dems are some way back in fourth place, at or around 10%, with the Greens fluctuating around 5% and the BNP nowhere.
If those figures turn out to be the result, here’s what it might well mean in terms of seats won, according to EuroElection2014:
Ukip = 26 seats (+13)
Labour = 23 (+13)
Conservatives = 13 (-14)
Lib Dems = 5 (-6)
The Greens wouldn’t win a seat, while the BNP would lose both theirs.
Of course, these figures come with a huge pinch of salt. For a start, there’s still three weeks of the campaign left. Secondly, turn-out is unlikely to be high (maybe 35-40%?) which makes polls more prone to forecasting error. And thirdly, the parties’ get-out-the-vote operations will be crucial – this will probably favour Ukip because their voters are so motivated by anti-Europeanism, but also Labour because (unlike in 2009) these elections coincide with local elections in London and other urban areas where they’re strong.
In terms of Lib Dem support in the Euro elections, by the way, it won’t come as much surprise to know the party is faring better in England (11%) than either Scotland (7%) or Wales (7%), according to a poll released this week. The Lib Dems also stand at 11% in London, according to a YouGov poll published earlier in April.
* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.