Nick v Nigel: the polls call it for Farage. Disappointing, but don’t panic! Here’s 3 reasons why you shouldn’t…

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Last week we had one post-debate poll. It showed Farage won overall, but the split was more interesting: Labour and Lib Dem voters went for Nick, Tory and Ukippers for Nigel. As you’d probably expect. This week we had two post-debate polls, and their results are remarkably similar. ICM says Clegg was reckoned to have […]

Nick v Nigel, Round 2: My second thoughts

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Last week, there was no doubt in my mind that Nick Clegg won the debate – he quite simply out-classed Nigel Farage, and YouGov’s poll showed Labour and Lib Dem voters agreed (though not Tory and Ukip voters). This week, it was much more evenly matched. The early part belonged to Nick. With the focus […]

So how’s my scenario 3 – a Tory lead of 6% by May 2015 – working out then?

by Stephen Tall on April 2, 2014

Time to dust down a post from last December looking at scenarios for the 2015 election based on current polling – two of which pointed to the Conservatives being likely to take a poll lead in the next year. (NB: as then, please note my huge caveat – “the extent of the polling science on […]