Where Ukip won (or almost won) on 2nd May 2013

by Stephen Tall on May 14, 2013

Wondering where Ukip won (or almost won – see below) in the local elections on Thursday, 2nd May? Then here’s a handy graphic and breakdown by constituency…

ukip vote may 2013

My thanks to Lib Dem Ben Mathis (@binny_uk) for crunching the Ukip numbers, as below. We’ll update the list with any more found…

LINCOLNSHIRE

Boston & Skegness
Con ~8000
UKIP ~10,000
Labour ~4000
Independents ~3000

There were no Lib Dem candidates. In one division partly in the seat, Ukip did not stand.

South Holland & The Deepings
Con ~8050
UKIP ~7050
Lab ~2550
Ind ~4300

One and a half divisions (The Deepings) had no Ukip candidates, so essentially a dead heat.

KENT

Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Con ~7300
UKIP ~9600
LD ~1000
Lab ~6200

North Thanet
Con ~7100
UKIP ~8700
LD ~1250
Lab ~5000

Folkestone & Hythe
Con ~10,100
UKIP ~9200
LD ~2800
Lab ~3700

The Greens also polled over 2000 votes and won Hythe division (traditionally Tory) Where these votes would go in a general is an open question.

WEST SUSSEX

Worthing East & Shoreham
Con 7136
UKIP 7386
LD 2276
Lab 3130

Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
Con 6111
UKIP 7766
LD 4340
Lab 2457

ESSEX
Castle Point
Con 6404
UKIP 6466
LD 316
Lab 2574
Independents 2962

Most Canvey Island Independent voters are white working-class small-c conservatives, who mostly vote Tory in general elections but would probably back Ukip if they were challenging for the seat. Virtually a dead heat between the Conservatives and Ukip on May 2nd.

Rayleigh & Wickford
Con 7936
UKIP 6719
LD 2141
Lab 2169

Another seat closer than it looks. Ukip’s vote in Rayleigh North was hit by an English Democrat standing and polling 660. In Rochford West a Green candidate won with 1615 votes. As in Hythe, these are unlikely to transfer to a Green parliamentary candidate.

The neighbouring seat of Basildon South & East Thurrock could be interesting, but as most of it is within Thurrock unitary authority, only two wards were contested this time round.

BUCKINGHAMSHIRE

Aylesbury

Con – 4998
UKIP – 6783
Lib Dem – 4454
Labour – 2573

Maybe evidence of the “HS2 Effect”?

Finally in GLOUCESTERSHIRE

Forest of Dean
Con 7187
UKIP 6247
LD 1742
Lab 5699
Green 970
Independents 3055

With the Independents strong and one division where Ukip didn’t stand, that could go any one of three ways!

All of which chimes with Lord Ashcroft’s polling from last December, as analysed by Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report here (and still relevant 6 months’ later):

… UKIP support is not particularly connected with Europe, it is an anti-immigration vote and protest vote against some aspects of modern Britain, a general reactionary vote in support of taking Britain back to a status quo ante.

Or, as I characterised Ukip’s USP here: ‘stop-the-world-I-want-to-get-off-pull-up-the-drawbridge-nothing-against-them-personally-but-we’re-full-and-another-thing-health-and-safety-some-of-my-best-friends-are–all-the-parties-are-the-same-I’d-emigrate-if-I-could’.

And as for the future, here’s Anthony Wells again:

The fact that UKIP support is not primarily driven by attitudes to Europe suggests that a referendum on EU membership is not the sort of elixir that some people seem to consider it to be. That’s not to say it wouldn’t shift votes, or appeal to people with the sort of values that lead them to support UKIP… just don’t expect it to magically lure all those votes back to the Conservatives overnight. More pertinent is the degree to which UKIP sympathisers who prefer Cameron and the Conservatives to Miliband and Labour will end up returning to the Conservatives once an actual election arrives, and the degree to which UKIP has replaced the Liberal Democrats as a vehicle for mid-term protest votes from people unhappy with both the government and the opposition. Right now there is no good way of measuring that.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.