by Stephen Tall on December 30, 2012
Lib Dem Voice polled our members-only forum recently to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Over 500 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results.
+28% says party is on the “right course”
Do you think, as a whole, the Liberal Democrats are on the right course or on the wrong track? (Comparison with November’s figures.)
61% (+4%) – The right course
33% (-1%) – The wrong track
6% (-3%) – Don’t know / No opinion
Net right course: +28% (+5%)
This is the highest net rating (+28%) for the party among members since the summer. However, it is still markedly down on a year ago, when it stood at +37%.
Nick scores +17% as Lib Dem leader
What is your view of Nick Clegg’s performance as Lib Dem leader? (Comparison with November’s figures.)
16% – Very satisfied
42% – Satisfied
Total satisfied = 58%
24% – Dissatisfied
17% – Very dissatisfied
Total dissatisfied = 41%
1% – Don’t know / No opinion
Net satisfaction: +17%
Marginally better news for Nick Clegg to close the year — satisfaction with his leadership has climbed from the nadir of September (when it dipped to -2%) to +17%, the highest since the summer. However, this still represents a big fall in the last 12 months, after the poor handling of the NHS Bill: as recently as February, Nick’s ratings stood at +38%.
77% back the Lib Dems being in Coalition
Do you support or oppose the Lib Dems being in the Coalition Government with the Conservatives? (Comparison with November’s figures.)
77% (n/c) – Support
19% (+1%) – Oppose
5% (n/c) – Don’t know / No opinion
Net support: +58% (-1%)
One rating has remained remarkably resilient in spite of everything: approval for the Lib Dems continuing in coalition with the Tories remains stubbornly high. Yes, it is down on a year ago — approval stood at +68% in December last year — but, considering everything, I continue to be surprised by the high level of support the principle of Coalition has sustained (if not always the practice).
+14% net approval for the Coalition Government’s record to date
Do you approve or disapprove of the Coalition Government’s record to date? (Comparison with November’s figures.)
53% (-1%) – Approve
39% (+1%) – Disapprove
8% (-1%) – Don’t know / No opinion
Net approval: +14% (+2%)
Lib Dem members are much more split on how the Coalition Government is working: net approval is positive, but at a pretty anaemic +14%. This compares with +41% a year ago. Three big hits seem to have been responsible: first, the row over the NHS Bill; secondly, the omnishambolic March budget; and thirdly, the collapse of Lords reform
Three-quarters say Coalition will be bad for Lib Dem prospects in 2015
Do you think the Coalition Government will be good or bad for the Lib Dems’ electoral prospects at the next general election? (Comparison in brackets with November’s figures.)
9% (n/c) – Good
75% (+2%) – Bad
11% (-4%) – Neither good nor bad
5% (+2%) – Don’t know
A year ago, two-thirds were pessimistic about Lib Dem electoral prospects in 2015: today, that proportion stands at three-quarters. It is nine months since more than 1-in-10 of you thought the party could look forward to the next election.
Four-fifths say Coalition will last the course
How long do you expect the coalition government will last? (Comparison in brackets with November’s figures.)
3% (n/c%) – It will end in 2013
15% (-1%) – It will end in 2014
80% (+1%) – It will last the full term, until 2015
2% (-1%) – Don’t know
A year ago, 72% thought the Coalition would last the distance. Today, party members are more certain the Coalition will endure until 2015, although as we’ve already seen there is trepidation at what will happen then.
70% want Coalition to go on into 2015
When would you like the Coalition to end? (Comparison in brackets with November’s figures.)
11% (+2%) – As soon as possible
5% (+1%) – It should end in 2013
12% (+1%) – It should end in 2014
38% (+1%) – It should stop shortly before the 2015 general election so the two Coalition parties can set out their different plans
30% (-3%) – It should continue right up to the 2015 general election
2% (-2%) – It should continue beyond the 2015 general election
1% (-1%) – Don’t know
A cumulative 72% want the Coalition to continue into 2015, compared to a cumulative 28% wanting it to finish within the next two years. When we first asked this question, in August, the equivalent figures were 78% and 22%: a shift against the Coalition certainly, but not a major one.
Party members split on Lib Dem influence achieved within Coalition
How would you rate the extent of the Liberal Democrat influence within the Coalition Government, where 10 is highly influential, and 1 indicates no influence. (Comparison with November’s figures.)
Lacking influence = 50% (-1%)
Achieving influence = 49% (n/c)
When we first asked this question, in March, Lib Dem members felt by a margin of 67%-31% that the party was achieving influence within the Coalition government. However, this has dropped significantly in the second half of the year, as the Tories ditched their pledge to reform the Lords and moved towards their right-wing comfort zone. Today, members are, overall, evenly divided on whether the party is achieving influence. However, there are two clear spikes — at 3 and at 7 — which indicate the two camps of opinion within the party: those who think the party is achieving little or nothing in Coalition; and those who think the pain is at least extracting some gain.
- Over 1,200 Lib Dem paid-up party members are registered with LibDemVoice.org. Over 500 responded to the latest survey, which was conducted between 7th and 11th December.
- Please note: we make no claims that the survey is fully representative of the Lib Dem membership as a whole. However, LibDemVoice.org’s surveys are the largest independent samples of the views of Lib Dem members across the country, and have in the past offered accurate guides to what party members think.
- For further information on the reliability/credibility of our surveys, please refer to FAQs: Are the Liberal Democrat Voice surveys of party members accurate? and polling expert Anthony Wells’ verdict, On that poll of Lib Dem members.
- The full archive of our members’ surveys can be viewed at www.libdemvoice.org/category/ldv-members-poll