by Stephen Tall on November 11, 2010
Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of the contest for the party presidency, the Comprehensive Spending Review, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Almost 600 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results over the next few days.
First, we asked what party members thought of the campaigns of the two presidential candidates, Tim Farron and Susan Kramer:
Regardless of how you intend to vote, which of the two candidates do you think has run the best campaign to become party president?
50% – Tim Farron
8% – Susan Kramer
21% – Both have been equally good
10% – Neither has impressed me much
10% – Don’t know / No opinion
It’s a striking result, with half of all party members viewing Tim Farron’s campaign as the most effective. By contrast, just 8% — fewer than one in eight — think Susan Kramer’s campaign worked best. A pretty high proportion, just over one-fifth, reckon both campaigns worked equally well. One in 10 felt neither campaign reached out to them.
Then on to the big question:
Who have you voted for, or do you intend to vote for?
56% – Tim Farron
29% – Susan Kramer
10% – I have not yet decided but will definitely vote
5% – I do not think I will use my vote
If our survey results are accurate, therefore, Tim Farron is set to win the battle for the party presidency by a convincing 2:1 margin, even allowing for the small number of members who had yet to make up their minds when we polled them.
A word on our methodology: for the first time we’ve tried to weight our results both by region and by sex to try and ensure the greatest possible accuracy. The ‘raw’ results for the presidential contest were as follows:
55% – Tim Farron
28% – Susan Kramer
11% – I have not yet decided but will definitely vote
6% – I do not think I will use my vote
As you can see, hardly any difference in the overall results — although there were some regional differences as might be expected in a contest pitching a high-profile London ex-MP against a high-profile Cumbrian MP.