EXCLUSIVE: Tim Farron set to win contest for party presidency

by Stephen Tall on November 11, 2010

Lib Dem Voice has polled our members-only forum to discover what Lib Dem members think of the contest for the party presidency, the Comprehensive Spending Review, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Almost 600 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results over the next few days.

First, we asked what party members thought of the campaigns of the two presidential candidates, Tim Farron and Susan Kramer:

Regardless of how you intend to vote, which of the two candidates do you think has run the best campaign to become party president?

    50% – Tim Farron
    8% – Susan Kramer
    21% – Both have been equally good
    10% – Neither has impressed me much
    10% – Don’t know / No opinion

It’s a striking result, with half of all party members viewing Tim Farron’s campaign as the most effective. By contrast, just 8% — fewer than one in eight — think Susan Kramer’s campaign worked best. A pretty high proportion, just over one-fifth, reckon both campaigns worked equally well. One in 10 felt neither campaign reached out to them.

Then on to the big question:

Who have you voted for, or do you intend to vote for?

    56% – Tim Farron
    29% – Susan Kramer
    10% – I have not yet decided but will definitely vote
    5% – I do not think I will use my vote

If our survey results are accurate, therefore, Tim Farron is set to win the battle for the party presidency by a convincing 2:1 margin, even allowing for the small number of members who had yet to make up their minds when we polled them.

A word on our methodology: for the first time we’ve tried to weight our results both by region and by sex to try and ensure the greatest possible accuracy. The ‘raw’ results for the presidential contest were as follows:

    55% – Tim Farron
    28% – Susan Kramer
    11% – I have not yet decided but will definitely vote
    6% – I do not think I will use my vote

As you can see, hardly any difference in the overall results — although there were some regional differences as might be expected in a contest pitching a high-profile London ex-MP against a high-profile Cumbrian MP.

  • Over 1,200 Lib Dem paid-up party members are registered with LibDemVoice.org. 580 responded to the latest survey, which was conducted between 3rd and 10th November.
  • Please note: we make no claims that the survey is fully representative of the Lib Dem membership as a whole. However, LibDemVoice.org’s surveys are the largest independent samples of the views of Lib Dem members across the country, and have in the past accurately predicted the results of the contest for Party President, and the conference decision to approve the Coalition agreement.
  • The full archive of our members’ surveys can be viewed at www.libdemvoice.org/category/ldv-members-poll