The LDV Election Night Live-Blog: 4.30 – 6.00 pm

by Stephen Tall on May 7, 2010

5.55 am

Here’s that Lib Dem LOSS in Richmond Park on a 7% swing to the Tories:
Conservative 29,461 49.7% (+10.1)
Susan Kramer Liberal Democrat 25,370 42.8% (-3.8)
Labour 2,979 5.0% (-4.2)

5.50 am

Brighton Pavilion is a gain for the Greens’ Caroline Lucas.

5.46 am

Susan Kramer has LOST Richmond Park to the Tories’ Zac Gldsmith.

Lib Dems’ Stehen Gilbert has HELD St Austell & Newquay.

5.42 am

Terrific result for Nick Radford in Salisbury, but it’s another NEAR MISS:
Conservative 23,859 49.2% (+2.8)
Nick Radford Liberal Democrat 17,893 36.9% (+10.0)
Labour 3,690 7.6% (-11.0)

Vince Cable HOLDS Twickenham with a majority of 12,000:
Vince Cable Liberal Democrat 32,483 54.4% (+2.7)
Conservative 20,343 34.1% (+1.7)
Labour 4,583 7.7% (-3.7)

5.38 am

Here’s the current BBC projected share of the vote:

    Con 37%, Lab 28%, LibDem 23%, Others 12%

So almost no advance at all on 2005. Then again no slippage either, yet we’re going to end up losing 15% of our MPs it seems.

5.28 am

Lib Dems now projected to win only 54 seats according to latest projections :(

Bad news from Winchester, where the Lib Dems’ Martin Tod has LOST to the Tories suffering a large 9.1% swing:
Conservative 27,155 48.5% (+11.2)
Martin Tod Liberal Democrat 24,107 43.1% (-7.0)
Labour 3,051 5.5% (-3.9)

Here’s the Cambridge result:
Julian Huppert Liberal Democrat 19,621 39.1% (-5.6)
Conservative 12,829 25.6% (+8.3)
Labour 12,174 24.3% (-8.2)

5.25 am

Ed Davey HOLDS Kingston and Surbiton.

An LDV shout-out to contributing editor Helen Duffett who contested Andrew Rosindell in Romford:
Conservative 26,031 56.0% (-1.7)
Labour 9,077 19.5% (-9.5)
Helen Duffett Liberal Democrat 5,572 12.0% (+3.6)

5.22 am

The Guardian’s Julian Glover sums up the various Lib Dem dilemmas:

… for all that Clegg might yet end up the most powerful liberal leader for years. If the Tories don’t get a majority, but govern, they will need Lib Dem votes, even if informally. Likewise Labour. And already Labour cabinet ministers are talking up the prospects of a
progressive deal as if they had never really wanted to run Britain on their own – though it will surely depend on the Tories getting below 300 seats, a psychological boundary if not a constitutional one.

So Clegg will matter, even if he lacks the moral swagger he’d hoped for after the first debate. This isn’t a crushing night for him in every respect.

But that opportunity of course carries with it a big risk. If Clegg’s heart says grab a deal with Labour, his head says hold off. He doesn’t want to end up as Gordon Brown’s little helper – and he doesn’t trust Cameron’s embrace. He wants to remain an independent third force. He’ll say – rightly – that no party has won this morning. But that means isolation, and perhaps even decline. He’s playing poker for high stakes.

5.16 am

Lib Dems HOLD Cambridge. Well done, Julian Huppert.

Bridget Fox, the Lib Dems’ unsuccessful candidate in Islington South, tweets:

Ironically, I got more votes than last time but not enough to win. Thanks to my amazing team and the thousands who voted LibDem in #IslingS

A good swing for the Lib Dems in Sheffield South East, 9% from Labour:

Labour 20,169 48.7% (-11.6)
Gail Smith Liberal Democrat 9,664 23.3% (+6.4)
Conservative 7,202 17.4% (+3.0)

5.15 am – State of the Nation summary

The Lib Dems have made FOUR GAINS: Burnley, Norwich South, Eatsbourne and Redcar.

And NINE LOSSES: Chesterfield, Cornwall South East, Harrogate & Knaresborough, Hereford & Herefordshire South, Montgomeryshire, Newton Abbot, Oxford West & Abingdon, Romsey & Southampton North and York Outer.

The party is currently on 22.5% of the vote.

5.08 am

Sadly one of our first calls – that Fred Mackntosh had gained Edinburgh South – hasn’t materialised:

Labour 15,215 34.7% (+1.5)
Fred Mackintosh Liberal Democrat 14,899 34.0% (+1.7)
Conservative 9,452 21.6% (-2.5)

5.06 am

Here’s the NEAR MISS in Hull North where the Lib Dems achieved a terrific 12.2% swing from Labour:

Labour 13,044 39.2% (-13.1)
Denis Healy Liberal Democrat 12,403 37.3% (+11.3)
Conservative 4,365 13.1% (-0.2)

5.01 am

Andrw Stunell HOLDS Hazel Grove.

Bridget Fox has MISSED OUT in Islington South, Labour gaining a 3.3% swing from the Lib Dems.
Labour 18,407 42.3% (+2.4)
Bridget Fox Liberal Democrat 14,838 34.1% (-4.2)
Conservative 8,449 19.4% (+4.6)

Here’s the Cheadle result by the way:
Mark Hunter Liberal Democrat 24,717 47.1% (-0.7)
Conservative 21,445 40.8% (+0.5)
Labour 4,920 9.4% (-0.5)

4.58 am

Jo Swinson tweets that we’ve missed out on Hull North.

And both Leicester South and Birmingham Hodge Hill have stayed Labour.

Bad news in Cornwall South East, where it’s confirmed Karen Gillard has missed out:
Conservative 22,390 45.1% (+10.1)
Karen Gillard Liberal Democrat 19,170 38.6% (-8.1)
Labour 3,507 7.1% (-3.4)

4.55 am

Here’s the Chippenham result:
Duncan Hames Liberal Democrat 23,970 45.8% (+3.4)
Conservative 21,500 41.1% (+3.4)
Labour 3,620 6.9% (-9.9)

And here’s the three-way marginal of Norwich South, where Charles Clarke has been ousted:
Simon Wright Liberal Democrat 13,960 29.4% (-0.6)
Labour 13,650 28.7% (-8.7)
Conservative 10,902 22.9% (+1.1)
Green 7,095 14.9% (+7.5)

4.50 am

Some good news again: the Lib Dems’ Simon Wright has GAINED Norwich South from Labour’s Charles Clarke.

And Greg Mulholland has HELD Leeds North West, as he’s just tweeted:

Leeds NW result in. I have a majority of a little over 9,000. Thanks to my amazing team & the good people of Leeds NW. I will do my best

And Lib Dems HOLD Cheadle: well done Mark Hunter.

Twitter is mourning Evan Harris’s defeat – eg:

daraobriain Very bad news about @DrEvanHarris A hugely backwards step for rational voices in parliament

4.45 am

Unconfirmed Lib Dem holds in notional Chippenham (Duncam Hames), Hornsey and Wood Green (Lynne Featherstone), Birmingham Yardley (John Hemming) and Dorset Mid and Poole North (Annette Brooke).

4.41 am

Here’s Paul Burstow’s result in Sutton and Cheam where he beat the, erm, controversial Tory Philippa Stroud:

Paul Burstow Liberal Democrat 22,156 45.7% (-1.2)
Conservative 20,548 42.4% (+1.7)
Labour 3,376 7.0% (-4.9)

Also a very good Lib Dem result against the Tories in Bosworth, with a 5.9% swing:

Conservative 23,132 42.6% (+0.0)
Michael Mullaney Liberal Democrat 18,100 33.3% (+11.7)
Labour 8,674 16.0% (-15.9)

4.35 am

Evan Harris has tweeted:

Sorry that you guys have to share my disappointment. thanks for the messages. I’m Ok & will come back from this and re-win.

And so has Sandra Gidley:

Don’t feel sorry I’ve lost – feel sorry for my lovely staff who now have no jobs #nowimnotanmp

Cornwall South-East a notional Tory gain from the Lib Dems; Karen Gillard misses out.

Charles Kennedy and Paul Burstow both safely returned.

Labour’s Jacqui Smith has lost her Redditch seat to the Tories with a 9.2% swing.

4.30 am

Lib Dems miss out on York Outer, a notional Lib Dem seat:

Conservative 22,912 43.0% (+6.7)
Madeleine Kirk Liberal Democrat 19,224 36.1% (-0.7)
Labour 9,108 17.1% (-9.9)

Another Lib Dem target, Luton South, bites the dust – and Esther Rantzen loses her deposit:

Labour 14,725 34.9% (-7.9)
Conservative 12,396 29.4% (+1.3)
Qurban Hussain Liberal Democrat 9,567 22.7% (+0.1)

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One comment

New post: The LDV Election Night Live-Blog: 4.30 – 6.00 pm

by Stephen Tall on May 7, 2010 at 5:40 am. Reply #

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