The LDV Election Night Live-Blog: 1.30 – 3.00 pm

by Stephen Tall on May 7, 2010

2.55 am

More bad news … Lib Dems have failed to take Swansea West and Liverpool Wavertree and Totnes.

We have HELD Taunton. And there’s a recount in Ashfield.

2.50 am

Jo Swinson has held Dunbartonshire East.

Confirmation of the LIB DEM LOSS in Harrogate and Knaresborough, with a large 9.1% swing from Lib Dem to Tory:

Conservative 24,305 45.7% (+9.8)
Claire Kelley Liberal Democrat 23,266 43.8% (-8.4)
Labour 3,413 6.4% (-2.7)

2.47 am

The Tories’ Jeremy Hunt holds in Surrey South West, with an 8.6% swing from Lib Dem to Tory.

2.43 am

Chris Huhne HOLDS Eastleigh.

Confirmation of the Lib Dem GAIN in Eastbourne, with 4% swing from Tory to Lib Dem on 67% turnout:

Stephen Lloyd Liberal Democrat 24,658 47.3% (+5.6)
Conservative 21,223 40.7% (-2.3)
Labour 2,497 4.8% (-6.0)

2.40 am

Here’s David Heath’s victory in Somerton and Frome, and for once he has a majority in four figures (he’s held it with a 3-figure majority since 1997):

David Heath Liberal Democrat 28,793 47.5% (+3.8)
Conservative 26,976 44.5% (+1.9)
Labour 2,675 4.4% (-6.4)

2.36 am

Labour hold in Glasgow North, another Lib Dem target, despite increasing our vote:

Labour 13,181 44.5% (+5.1)
Katy Gordon Liberal Democrat 9,283 31.3% (+3.9)
Scottish National Party 3,530 11.9% (-1.0)

We’ve also missed out on Swansea West, again despite a decent 5.7% swing from Labour to Lib Dem:

Labour 12,335 34.7% (-7.2)
Peter May Liberal Democrat 11,831 33.2% (+4.3)
Conservative 7,407 20.8% (+4.8)

2.29 am

Confirmed that Mark Williams has HELD Ceredigion, with a huge 10% swing. Also reported that David Heath has held on once again in Somerton and Frome.

However reported that Lib Dems have LOST Harrogate to the Tories – that’s Phil Willis’s old seat.

2.24 am

This is the big drama … the GOOD NEWS …
LIB DEM GAIN in Eastbourne: wonderful.

BUT THE BAD NEWS OF THE NIGHT … Lembit Opik loses Montgomeryshire: that’s devastating. Huge 13.2% swing from Lib Dem to Tory in Lloyd George’s old seat:

Conservative 13,976 41.3% (+13.8)
Lembit Opik Liberal Democrat 12,792 37.8% (-12.5)
Plaid Cymru 2,802 8.3% (+1.3)

2.20 am

Confirmation of Willie Rennie’s defeat in Dunfermline & West Fife – a big swing of 8% from Labout to Lib Dem, but it’s not enough to retain the seat:

Labour 22,639 46.3% (-1.2)
Willie Rennie Liberal Democrat 17,169 35.1% (+14.9)
Scottish National Party 5,201 10.6% (-8.3)

2.16 am

Unconfirmed reports that Lembit Opik may have lost Montgomeryshire.

2.14 am

I think it’s fair to say this is turning into a night of deep disappointment for the Lib Dems – all the more so for the high hopes we had.

2.08 am

LIB DEM NEAR-MISS in Newport East. A good swing of 8.3% from Labour to Lib Dem, but it’s not enough:

Labour 12,744 37.0% (-8.2)
Ed Townsend Liberal Democrat 11,094 32.2% (+8.5)
Conservative 7,918 23.0% (-0.5)

And there’s some quite grim news in Richmond, too, where it sounds like it’s going to the wire, with Tories looking optimistic.

2.05 am

LIB DEM HOLD North East Fife (Ming Campbell), but with 5% swing from Lib Dem to Tory:

Menzies Campbell Liberal Democrat 17,763 44.3% (-7.8)
Conservative 8,715 21.8% (+2.3)
Labour 6,869 17.1% (+4.4)

2.01 pm

LIB DEM LOSS in Dunfermline. Wllie Rennie has been defeated :(

Guardian reports:

Oliver Letwin is safe in West Dorset, I’m told. He had a notional majority of 2,461 over the Lib Dems and there was speculation that he was in trouble.

1.54 pm

The Lib Dems have missed out on Wrexham, another long-shot hope:

Labour 12,161 36.9% (-9.2)
Tom Rippeth Liberal Democrat 8,503 25.8% (+2.2)
Conservative 8,375 25.4% (+5.4)

A good swing of 5.7% from Labour to Lib Dem, but the rise in the Tory vote has kept Labour in.

As with Guildford, so with Newbury – a crushing defeat, sadly, for the wonderful David Rendel:

Conservative 33,057 56.4% (+7.4)
David Rendel Liberal Democrat 20,809 35.5% (-7.1)
Labour 2,505 4.3% (-1.7)

1.46 pm

Bad news for Lib Dems in Guildford – it’s a Tory hold, with a big 6.5% swing from Lib Dem to Tory. Bad luck Sue Doughty :(

Conservative 29,618 53.3% (+9.9)
Sue Doughty Liberal Democrat 21,836 39.3% (-4.0)
Labour 2,812 5.1% (-4.8)

And we’re hearing the news from Watford is not optimistic, either.

1.42 pm

LIB DEM HOLD in Yeovil – great result for David Laws:

David Laws Liberal Democrat 31,843 55.7% (+4.2)
Conservative 18,807 32.9% (-1.2)
Labour 2,991 5.2% (-5.3)

Another effective Labour squeeze. 69% turnout, with 3% swing from Tory to Lib Dem.

1.38 pm

Big victory for Gordon Brown in his constituency at least, with a 3.3% swing from SNP to Labour in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.

1.30 pm

City of Durham declaration, a top Lib Dem hope. And it’s a big disappointment, I’m afraid – Labour hold:

Roberta Blackman-Woods Labour 20,496 44.3 -2.9
Carol Woods Liberal Democrat 17,429 37.7 -2.1
Nick Varley Conservative 6,146 13.3 +3.9

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