Pollwatch Day 30 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-29%, neck-and-neck with Labour, in final polls (UPDATED)

by Stephen Tall on May 5, 2010

Okay, well this is it – the final polls of the campaign are published tonight. Here’s what’s in so far:

    YouGov in The Sun … CON 35%(nc), LAB 28%(-2), LIB DEM 28%(+4)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 35%(+2), LAB 27%(-1), LIB DEM 26%(-1)
    TNS BMRB … CON 33%(-1), LAB 27%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)
    Populus in The Times … CON 37%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com … CON 36%(+1), LAB 24%(+1), LIB DEM 29%(nc)
    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 36%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LIB DEM 26%(-2)
    ComRes for the Indy/ITV … CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 28%(+2)

Well, if that’s not a consistent pattern, I don’t know what is. The Tories are somewhere in the mid-30%s, with Labour and Lib Dems vying for second place in the high 20%s. Who’d have thought that was possible at the start of this campaign?

ComRes and ICM still to come, maybe others – we’ll update again later tonight. Apparently the very final poll will be Ipsos MORI’s in Thursday’s London Evening Standard.

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report’s ‘poll of polls’ shows the following final figures:

    CON 35%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 27%

Anthony has blogged his final predictions here:

… my guess is we are going to see the Conservatives between 300-310, Labour between 220-230, the Liberal Democrats between 80-90 (though I warn you, I may be a pollster, but my personal powers of election prediction are notoriously poor!)

And YouGov’s chairman Peter Kellner has also stuck his neck out:

Overall, my prediction of the outcome tomorrow is:
Conservative: 300-310 seats
Labour: 230-240
Lib Dem: 75-85
Others: around 30

Don’t forget: you can make your predictions on the LDV Competetion thread here.

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