by Stephen Tall on May 4, 2010
Three polls published tonight:
ComRes for Indy/ITV … CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LIB DEM 26%(nc)
YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LIB DEM 24%(-4)
Harris in Metro … CON 36%(+4), LAB 26%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-2)
What to make of those? The YouGov poll is the least good news for the Lib Dems, showing a sharp 4% drop in support. It’s hard to see anything that’s happened in the last 24 hours triggering such a sudden dip, so this may turn out to be an outlier caused perhaps by the difficulties of polling over a bank holiday weekend. Of course, it may presage a mini-collapse in Lib Dem support – tomorrow’s polls will tell us more – but in the meantime ‘Keep Clegg and Carry On’. The fall in support in the Harris poll is compared to their previous survey a week ago. It’s encouraging to see a poll still showing the Lib Dems out-polling Labour in second place.
No change to Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’:
CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%
How the Lib Dems are doing in the regions
Perhaps today’s most interesting polling data, though, is from YouGov and PoliticsHome’s regional breakdowns of support. This shows the Lib Dems polling better in every single region of the UK compared with 2005 with the sole exception of Scotland (where we are only 1% down).
Of particular interest is the south-west, which shows a swing from Tories to the Lib Dems of 5.5% – almost certainly enough to deprive David Cameron of his majority, and perhaps enough to see Nick Clegg’s party make gains at the Tories’ expense. The Lib Dems are continuing to perform especially strongly in the East Midlands (+11% compared with 2005), Yorkshire and the Humber (+9), the North West (+7), South East (+6) and North East (+6).