Pollwatch Day 28 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 26-28% in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on May 3, 2010

Thre polls published tonight:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 35%(+1) LAB 28% (nc) LIB DEM 28% (-1)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LIB DEM 27%(-1)
    ComRes for the Indy/ITV … CON 37%(-1), LAB 29%(+1), LIB DEM 26%(+1)

And one other poll by a non-BPC polling companies, with figures as follows:

    RNB Research … CON 37%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 26%

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ shows:

    CON 35%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 28%

With the Tories just 7-8% ahead of the Lib Dems and Labour, David Cameron will be pinning his hopes on his party out-performing their rivals in the marginals. The indication from today’s IPSO Mori poll of Labour/Tory marginals – about which Mark Pack blogged here earlier – suggests the Tories are very close to being able to do so. But they’re not there yet, as Anthony Wells explains:

The topline figures from MORI today, with changes from last week, are CON 36%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 20%(-1). This represents a slight swing to the Conservatives since a week ago, and with a 7 point swing is just about enough for the Conservatives to get an overall majority on a uniform swing. In practice however, these figures would be unlikely to produce a Tory majority – to win on a 7% swing the Conservatives would also need to gain a substantial number of seats from the Liberal Democrats, and this seems unlikely on present national polling.

At least as importantly – though so far unmentioned in the media reports of the poll – is how undecided voters are most likely to break in the Lib Dems’ favour. Here’s Reuters:

Some 36 percent of those polled said they might change their mind about who to vote for, compared with 46 percent who said the same last week. Asked who they would vote for if they did change their mind, 47 percent answered Liberal Democrat compared with 38 percent who said the same thing last week. Just under one fifth of voters would switch their vote to the Conservatives and just over one fifth would switch to Labour.

If those ‘floating’ voters do opt for the Lib Dems in the final days of the campaign, and turn out to the polls, there really is still all to play for!e