Pollwatch Day 25 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 28/32% in today’s polls. And are we headed for 120 MPs?

by Stephen Tall on April 30, 2010

Two polls published tonight:

    Harris in the Daily Mail … CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 28%(nc)

No significant changes there, all within the margin of error; though certainly encouraging to see the Lib Dems still polling at c.30% of the vote, at least level with Labour, and potentially even gaining support. Let’s see what the weekend polls, which will also include public reaction to the final debate, have in store.

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is resolutely stuck at Con 34%, Lib Dem 29%, Lab 27%. Just five days’ polls left to go until the one that matters. And then what are we all going to do?

Could we end up with 120 MPs?

That’s the current projection of Nate Silver’s FiveThiryEight.com, a US-based website which embarrassingly outstrips the combined intelligence and resource of the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Sky to actually look at polling and try and work out what the hell might happen, rather than parrot dumb stats that no-one believes.

Here’s what the site’s projecting for the UK election based on the following plausible-enough vote share:

    Con 33.5%, Lib Dem 28.7%, Lab 26.3%