Pollwatch Days 17-18 #GE2010 – Lib Dems on 29% in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on April 23, 2010

Two new polls tonight:

    Harris in the Mail … CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(-1)
    YouGov in the Sun … CON 34%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LIB DEM 29%(+1)

This makes it one full week during which the Lib Dem surge has been maintained, with the party polling consistently in the high-20%s right up to the mid-30%s. The Tories appear to be stuck in the low 30%s, while Labour is consistently pegged in the mid-to-high 20%s. Amusingly the Mail has headlined its poll – showing a 5% Tory lead over the Lib Dems – as follows: Cameron regaining the ground he lost to Clegg after fighting back in TV debate. Not entirely sure that counts as regaining ground!

Here’s Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report’s ‘poll of polls’ average:

    CON 33%, LAB 27%, LIB DEM 29%

There was one other poll yesterday – YouGov’s daily tracker in the Sun showing CON 34%(+1), LAB 29%(+2), LIB DEM 28%(-3). ComRes also carried out a voting intention poll of those who watched the second televised debate, showing CON 36%, LAB 24%, LIB DEM 35% – but such polls should be treated with some scepticism of course, especially as viewing figures for this debate were lower, and its impact almost certainly much reduced compared with last week’s explosive debate.

As Professor Michael Thrasher commented on Sky News:

I have never ever seen an election campaign like it, its totally different, talk about change … it’s changed because the Liberal Democrats have changed it all in the most dramatic way. All three parties are only divided by around 5 per centage point. The Tories need a double-digit lead if they are to pull of a majority, its now very, very difficult for them to win outright.”