Pollwatch Day 15 #GE2010 – Lib Dems still in 1st or 2nd place with 26-34% in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on April 20, 2010

Four new polls reported tonight – and the Lib Dem surge is holding up:

    Populus in The Times … CON 32%(-4), LAB 28%(-5), LIB DEM 31%(+10)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting … CON 32%(nc), LAB 23%(-1), LIB DEM 33%(+1)
    YouGov in The Sun … CON 31%(-2), LAB 26%(-1), LIB DEM 34%(+3)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 35%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LIB DEM 26%(-2)

The Lib Dems are above 30% in three of the four polls; only ComRes has us below 30%, though as Anthony Wells notes: “ComRes’s fieldwork was done on Sunday and Monday, so this poll is actually a day older than the Angus Reid, Populus and YouGov data we’ve seen”. Anthony suggests it might well be an outlier of a poll, and who am I to disagree?

The UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is still lagging behind the Lib Dem surge, today showing:

    CON 34%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 27%

We got Rage Against the Machine to #1, we can get the Lib Dems into office! update:
The unofficial Lib Dem Facebook fan group broke the 100,000 mark just yesterday. As I type its membership stands at 120,888 members. Pictured, right, is my favourite image uploaded today.

Prize for most sticking-my-finger-in-my-ears-lah-lah-can’t-hear-the-polls post of the day: The Daily Telegraph’s Ben Brogan’s So where is the yellow surge?
Ben used to be an ace political reporter for the Daily Mail (not a complete contradiction in terms), but since defecting to the Telegraph seems to be self-advertising every day to be appointed the Tories’ spinner-in-chief. Today’s post is the latest evidence of his sad decline:

I’ve spent the day talking to MPs and candidates in constituencies around the country, and while I get a range of opinions about where the Tories have gone wrong and what the outcome might be on May 6, there is a uniform response when I ask whether the Lib Dems are doing better out there: the answer appears to be ‘no’.

That’s right, Ben. Who needs polls when we’ve got Tory anecdotes?