Pollwatch Day 14 #GE2010 – Lib Dems in 1st or 2nd place with 28-32% in today’s polls

by Stephen Tall on April 19, 2010

Five new polls reported tonight – and it’s still resoundingly good news for the Lib Dems with the surge holding steady:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 33(+1), LAB 27%(+1), LIB DEM 31%(-2)
    Opinium in the Express … CON 32%(-7), LAB 26%(-5), LIB DEM 29%(+12)
    ComRes for the Independent/ITV … CON 32%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LIB DEM 28%(-1)
    Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com … CON 32%(-6), LAB 24%(-4), LIB DEM 32%(+10)
    ICM in the Guardian … CON 33%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LIB DEM 30%(+3)

Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ is still playing catch-up with the last five days’ quite extraordinary polls, and is showing the following scores:

    CON 34%, LAB 28%, LIB DEM 27%

PoliticsHome.com has the regional breakdown from its YouGov survey of 10,000 households conducted over the last week. These show the Lib Dems making gains across the country, but especially in the North West and the East of England. It also shows the party has advanced or maintained its position in every region of the UK compared with 2005, except Scotland or Wales. Full figures available here.

Prize for most optimistic wet-finger-in-the-air post of the day: The Spectator’s James Forsyth’s The growing sense that the worst is behind the Tories.
James tries to prove the first myth rule of journalism that reality is shaped by what you write, rather than the other way around. I just love the understatement here: “no one would pretend that [these polls] are what the Tories would like to see right now. … But they are not as bad as some feared they might be”.

Prize for biggest failure to understand how politics works post of the day: BBC Newsnight’s Michael Crick’s Are Lib Dems failing to take advantage of surge?
Yes, Michael, because obviously what the Lib Dems should do on the basis of four days’ good polling is ditch its key seats strategy and instead cross its fingers and pour money into non-target seats. Michael Crick’s feigned naivety about how politics works is always tedious, never more so than at election time.