Pollwatch Day 10 #GE2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 31%, Tories 38%

by Stephen Tall on April 16, 2010

Amidst all the excitement of the debate we neglected to report the latest two polls released last night:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 37%(-4), LAB 31%(-1), LIB DEM 22%(+4).
    TNS BMRB … CON 36%(-2), LAB 33%(nc), LIB DEM 22%(+3).

Still no change in Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ average – but I suspect that may change in the next day or so …

    Con 38% (n/c), Lab 31% (+1%), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)

It’s interesting to see the effect of the debate on public perceptions. YouGov asked how much confidence voters had in each of the leaders to take the right decisions for the country before and after the debate. Here’s what they found:

Nick Clegg: BEFORE 45% had some or a lot of confidence in Nick’s leadership abilities, with 52% having little or none; AFTER 74% (+29%) had some or a lot of confidence in Nick, with just 26% (-26%) having little or none. Put another way, Nick went from a net -7% confidence rating to +48%. Not bad for 90 minutes work.

Gordon Brown: BEFORE 42% had some or a lot of confidence in Brown’s leadership abilities, with 47% having little or none; AFTER 47% (+5%) had some or a lot of confidence in Nick, with 53% (+6%) having little or none. The net effect is that Brown went ever so slightly backwards, from -5% to -6%: clearly he is the most polarising of the three leaders.

David Cameron: BEFORE 50% had some or a lot of confidence in Cameron’s leadership abilities, with 49% having little or none; AFTER 54% (+4%) had some or a lot of confidence in Cameron, with 46% (-3%) having little or none. The net effect is that Cameron made a modest advance, from +1% to +8%: okay, it’s an increase, but relative to Nick’s figures this will be counted a disappointment by Tory HQ.