Pollwatch Day 2 #ge2010 – Lib Dems at 20%, Lab 30%, Tories 38%

by Stephen Tall on April 7, 2010

Three new polls tonight, and there’s good news for the Lib Dems – we’re up in all of them:

    YouGov in the Sun … CON 37% (-3%), LAB 32% (n/c), LIB DEM 19% (+2%)
    Populus in the Times … CON 39% (-1%), LAB 32% (+2%), LIB DEM 21% (+1%)
    Angus Reid in the Express … CON 37% (-1%), LAB 26% (-1%), LIB DEM 22% (+2%)

Of course, all these changes are within the +/-3% margin of error so we should be very careful about reading anything too much into these increases unless they are sustained in the coming days. Still, it’s nice to see the changes all in an upwards direction.

Perhaps it’s a result of the start of the campaign, and the long-awaited obligation of the broadcasters to give the Lib Dems a little air-time under the terms of the Representation of the People Act. Why it should take an act of law to remind the BBC, Sky, ITV etc that in half the country the battle is not between Labour and Tory I do not know.

These polls have rather dented the media narrative in the last 24 hours: most commentators, at least on the right, were talking-up the Tories’ campaign launch in the hope, doubtless, of sparking “Labour campaign in crisis” headlines. Well, the Labour figures ain’t great, but all three polls put the Tories below 40% again.

There’s no change to Anthony Wells’ UK Polling Report ‘poll of polls’ – for details of how this is calculated, and the hefty health warning with which it should be read, click here. Here’s the score as at 7th April:

    Con 38% (n/c), Lab 30% (n/c), Lib Dem 20% (n/c)