by Stephen Tall on August 27, 2009
Earlier this month, Lib Dem Voice asked our readers – who, I cannot emphasise enough, may or may not be Lib Dem supporters – what you think the next general election holds in store for the Lib Dems? Here’s what you told us:
24% (116 votes): An increase in % vote and an increase in seats
22% (103): An increase in % vote but a decrease in seats
12% (57): A decrease in % vote but an increase in seats
42% (201): A decrease in % vote and a decrease in seats.
Total Votes: 477 Poll ran: 7th-24th August 2009
A fairly pessimistic assessment, you might conclude, with a plurality of readers reckoning the party will go backwards, both in terms of share of the vote and number of seats held. Interestingly, while almost half (46%) of you think the party will increase its share of the vote, barely one-third (36%) think the party might also end up with more MPs as a result.
I think I tend to agree most with Joe Taylor in the comments thread of the original post:
My predictions for the General Election have been the same for about a year now:
1) We will lose between 10 and 20 seats to the Tories
2) We will gain between 10 and 20 seats from Labour
3) Our vote share will decline slightly
4) There will be at least one surprise gain from the Tories
Exactly how many seats we gain and lose will depend on the efforts of our teams in our marginal seats…
And that’s why everyone reading this message needs to go to a priority seat and deliver some leaflets or knock on some doors every week between now and the election!