Norwich North: could Labour finish fourth?

by Stephen Tall on July 2, 2009

The Eastern Daily Press has produced an intriguing analysis of last month’s local elections results, attempting to estimate how voting then might map across to the Norwich North by-election to be held later this month:

Calculating party support ahead of the by-election is difficult due to division boundaries overlapping constituency ones.

An approximation would give a line-up based on the June 4 results of: Conservatives 10,656 (40.1pc); Labour 4,953 (18.6pc); Lib Dem 4,371 (16.5pc); Green 4,251 (16.0pc); Ukip – standing in only four seats – 2,106 (7.9pc); BNP 228 (0.9pc). …

Labour, Lib Dems and Greens will be seeking to establish themselves early in the campaign as the main challenger to the Tories.

This compares with an ICM opinion poll last week (with a high margin of error) suggesting the Tories (34%) and Labour (30%) out front, with the Lib Dems on 15% and the Greens on 14%.

Of course not only do the local county boundaries not overlap directly with the constituencies, but the way folk vote in Parliamentary elections is often different than in local elections – just ask the Lib Dem PPCs in Liverpool city! My guess is the opinion poll figures will prove more accurate than an analysis of local election results, but we’ll see soon enough.