What does 4th June hold for the Lib Dems?

by Stephen Tall on May 6, 2009

Yesterday on LDV I had a look at how the 4th June local and Euro elections might play out for Labour, predicting that though the Lib Dems could and should beat Labour in the English county and unitary council elections being held, I was sceptical that the party would come second when voters cast their votes on the subject of Europe.

Today’s Times looks at possible outcomes of the local elections, and reports the analysis of polling expert, Robert Hayward who reckons that:

… Labour would lose at least 150 seats, the Tories would gain more than 150 and the Liberal Democrats would lose or win about 20. “Turnout could be as low as 30 per cent due to a general antipathy to politicians which will keep people at home and could favour the Tories,” Mr Hayward said.

(For the record, I doubt turnout will actually be that low. I recall similar predictions five years ago – not least because I was a council candidate in 2004 – the last time, local and Euro elections were held on the same day. In fact, turn-out was above 40%, and I’d expect a similar figure this time).

The paper goes on to suggest the Lib Dems should brace ourselves:

The Liberal Democrats could also have a rough night on June 4, losing one or two of the three counties they hold in the South West: Cornwall, Devon and Somerset.

What do LDV readers think? Might the party do better than this on 4th June? Or worse?