LDV party president polls – not so very far off

by Stephen Tall on November 8, 2008

Well, I’m not going to pretend that the Lib Dem Voice members’ surveys predicted the outcome of the party presidential race within a statistical margin of error. But it is interesting to see – in the first test of the surveys in an internal election – that they were reflective of how the wider membership actually voted.

October survey:
Chandila Fernando – 3%
Lembit Opik 10%
Ros Scott – 61%
I don’t know yet, but will definitely vote 23%
I won’t be voting – 3%

There is one measure on which the LDV members’ surveys are certainly unrepresentative of the membership (sadly): while in October only 4% of LDV-reading party members said you wouldn’t vote at all, in the actual ballot some 50% of the party membership chose not to.

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“50% of the party membership chose not to [vote]”

Well, except that some of the non-voters will:
have moved house
have failed to receive the ballot papers
be working away/ on holiday
have died

Most organisations would be thrilled to have 50% of their members voting in an internal election.

by crewegwyn on November 8, 2008 at 4:48 pm. Reply #

I think the low turnout explains why the LDV poll was so close. In short, the activist base which dominate the poll also have a disproportionate influence in the ballot itself. If it had been a higher turnout, I suspect it would have been less accurate.

by James Graham on November 8, 2008 at 7:03 pm. Reply #

Out of interest, how many people voted in the poll? (Just wondering, so I can work out if that really is within a reasonable margin of error.)

by Andy Hinton on November 9, 2008 at 1:47 am. Reply #

Andy,

28,782…

by Mark Valladares on November 9, 2008 at 1:55 am. Reply #

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