LDVUSA: Presidential Prediction competition results (unofficial)

by Stephen Tall on November 5, 2008

Well, the outcome’s in no doubt, but the actual result is – which means we can’t yet officially announce a winner of our Lib Dem Voice Presidential Prediction competition.

As it stands, we’re still pending the official confirmation of who has gained North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes. At the moment, it’s narrowly in the Obama fold, in which case the final electoral college vote will be: Obama 364, McCain 174.

If that’s eventually confirmed it will mean Joe (the) Taylor, Lib Dem blogger and councillor, and US electoral expert, will have duly triumphed, with an on-the-nose prediction. In which case, we won’t need to use our tie-breaker, the popular vote, where the current projection is Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

In fact a number of competition entrants came pretty damn close in the end. Here they are in descending order of closeness (assuming that North Carolina vote holds true for Obama):

1. Joe Taylor (spot-on)
Obama 364 McCain 174
51.8%, 46.8%

2. Hywel Morgan (8 off)
Obama 360, McCain 178
52%, 46%

3. RandomBlogger (22 off)
Obama 375, McCain 163
52.5%, 46.0%

4. Darrell (22 off)
Obama 375, McCain 163
53%, 46%

5. Geoffrey Payne (22 off)
Obama 353, McCain 185
53%, 46%

6. Liberal Neil (22 off)
Obama 353, McCain 185
52%, 45%

7. Stephen Tall (28 off)
Obama 378, McCain160
53%, 46%

8. Mark Littlewood (28 off)
Obama 378 McCain 160
55%, 42%

9. Ian Eiolart (48 off)
Obama 340, McCain198
52%, 46%

10. Huw Dawson (52 off)
Obama 338, McCain 200
50%, 49%

11. Peter 1919 (52 off)
Obama 338 McCain 200
51.5%, 46.4%

12. Laurence Boyce (52 off)
Obama 338, McCain 200
53%, 40%

13. LonelyWanderer (54 off)
Obama 337, McCain 201
50%, 49%

14. Andy Hinton (106 off)
Obama 311, McCain 227
53%, 45%

15. Bernard Salmon (108 off)
Obama 310 McCain 228
52%, 46%

16. Irfan Ahmed (128 off)
Obama 300 McCain 238
60%, 37%

17. tony hill (184 off)
McCain 272 Obama 266
50%, 49%

18. TAG (192)
Obama, 268, McCain 270
52%, 48%

19. Niall Sullivan (200 off)
Obama 264, McCain 274
50%, 48%

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No comments

At least I came 16th and didn’t know what the college system was until election night and it was explained by the Beeb who did a terrible job of giving us information!

by Irfan Ahmed on November 5, 2008 at 6:21 pm. Reply #

Mwa-ha-ha-ha-ha! That is all…

…except to say that my crack team of election lawyers will be descending on North Carolina shortly to make sure the result holds. 😉

by Joe Taylor on November 5, 2008 at 7:09 pm. Reply #

Just look what happened in the USA

We want somebody that is fresh with new ideas in putting this country back into good standards

We should have a vote on Europe

We should have best hospitals
we should have best schools

As too many expensive things in the UK

just like the oil price today it is slowly being coming down for last 4 months
but petrol prices have not come down very much
as you know this makes food much more expensive
also a gas and electricity this could be much cheaper it does not have to be linked to oil

We need a government in this country that understands what the normal people want
Labour and conservative for many years have got no idea whatsoever

All I know I’m waiting for when there is an election when all these promises come flowing out
I certainly like to know about your comments and see what you are willing to take on board what I have said

John steeples Nottingham England

by John Steeples on November 5, 2008 at 9:27 pm. Reply #

Well done Joe, I didn’t dare think it would be this much of an Obama landslide.

P.S.I should be 10th not 11th based on my more accurate popular vote prediction.

by Peter1919 on November 5, 2008 at 9:39 pm. Reply #

Yeah I was round at Joe T’s place yesterday, and he seemed to know half the Senate and House candidates names too, and much more besides. We didn’t stand a chance.

by Joe Otten on November 5, 2008 at 11:52 pm. Reply #

Happy to be very wrong on this occasion! (I’m always pessimistic on election day…)Respect to Joe.

John Steeples: suggest you visit the main party site at libdems.org.uk for comments of party bigwigs, and make your own mind up about what they say.

by TAG on November 6, 2008 at 2:40 am. Reply #

Hey, that’s not my name! (tip: cut and paste to avoid typos).

by Ian Eiloart on November 6, 2008 at 8:45 am. Reply #

Oh blimey. Now I’m rooting for McCain in NC!

by Ian Eiloart on November 6, 2008 at 9:03 am. Reply #

I couldn’t be more pleased to have been so useless!

by tony hill on November 6, 2008 at 7:10 pm. Reply #

Keep an eye on Omaha, Nebraska. Might yet be 365-173. Not that that will affect the Taylor triumph!

by Bibliophylax on November 6, 2008 at 11:54 pm. Reply #

Looks like Obama is going to win that Nebraska 2nd district after all.

Doesn’t change the rankings but does bring the large crowd of in joint third place slightly nearer 😉

by Liberal Neil on November 7, 2008 at 11:56 pm. Reply #

A touch (replaced tad) geeky but some might enjoy this page.

by Andrew on November 8, 2008 at 12:23 am. Reply #

Does a creditable 8th place mean that my psephological predictions are now going to be taking seriosuly 🙂

by Mark Littlewood on November 8, 2008 at 2:29 am. Reply #

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