LDVUSA: Presidential Prediction competition results (unofficial)

by Stephen Tall on November 5, 2008

Well, the outcome’s in no doubt, but the actual result is – which means we can’t yet officially announce a winner of our Lib Dem Voice Presidential Prediction competition.

As it stands, we’re still pending the official confirmation of who has gained North Carolina’s 15 electoral college votes. At the moment, it’s narrowly in the Obama fold, in which case the final electoral college vote will be: Obama 364, McCain 174.

If that’s eventually confirmed it will mean Joe (the) Taylor, Lib Dem blogger and councillor, and US electoral expert, will have duly triumphed, with an on-the-nose prediction. In which case, we won’t need to use our tie-breaker, the popular vote, where the current projection is Obama 52%, McCain 46%.

In fact a number of competition entrants came pretty damn close in the end. Here they are in descending order of closeness (assuming that North Carolina vote holds true for Obama):

1. Joe Taylor (spot-on)
Obama 364 McCain 174
51.8%, 46.8%

2. Hywel Morgan (8 off)
Obama 360, McCain 178
52%, 46%

3. RandomBlogger (22 off)
Obama 375, McCain 163
52.5%, 46.0%

4. Darrell (22 off)
Obama 375, McCain 163
53%, 46%

5. Geoffrey Payne (22 off)
Obama 353, McCain 185
53%, 46%

6. Liberal Neil (22 off)
Obama 353, McCain 185
52%, 45%

7. Stephen Tall (28 off)
Obama 378, McCain160
53%, 46%

8. Mark Littlewood (28 off)
Obama 378 McCain 160
55%, 42%

9. Ian Eiolart (48 off)
Obama 340, McCain198
52%, 46%

10. Huw Dawson (52 off)
Obama 338, McCain 200
50%, 49%

11. Peter 1919 (52 off)
Obama 338 McCain 200
51.5%, 46.4%

12. Laurence Boyce (52 off)
Obama 338, McCain 200
53%, 40%

13. LonelyWanderer (54 off)
Obama 337, McCain 201
50%, 49%

14. Andy Hinton (106 off)
Obama 311, McCain 227
53%, 45%

15. Bernard Salmon (108 off)
Obama 310 McCain 228
52%, 46%

16. Irfan Ahmed (128 off)
Obama 300 McCain 238
60%, 37%

17. tony hill (184 off)
McCain 272 Obama 266
50%, 49%

18. TAG (192)
Obama, 268, McCain 270
52%, 48%

19. Niall Sullivan (200 off)
Obama 264, McCain 274
50%, 48%