LDVUSA: your chance to enter the Presidential election prediction competition

by Stephen Tall on November 2, 2008

After perhaps the most fascinating electoral contest in modern political history, with more twists, turns and surprises than could ever have been imagined two years ago when it all began, the race to the White House is drawing to a close. In just three days (barring any hanging chads) we will know if the USA has elected its first black, or its oldest ever, President.

What we’re inviting Lib Dem Voice readers to do is to predict the likely outcome. The winner will earn not only the respect and acclaim of the Lib Dem blogosphere, but also the penultimate, limited edition LDV mug.

Here’s what you need to do to enter. First, predict the winner; secondly, predict the result in the electoral college; and, thirdly, predict the popular vote Senators Obama and McCain will attract.

So, if you believe the RealClearPolitics.com averages of the polls right now, you might enter the following answers:

1. Obama
2. Obama 353, McCain 185
3. Obama 50%, McCain 44%

The winner will be the reader who predicts the winner, and is closest to the eventual electoral college vote; the popular vote will determine the result in the event of a tie.

Please leave your entries in the comments box, below, and feel free to show your working. You can use a pseudonym if you prefer to remain anonymous, but you must use a valid email address for your entry to be included. The final closing date for entries is 9am, Tuesday morning.

Here for your interest and info is the latest round-up of which way the states are likely to line up in the electoral college, according to the average of the latest polls. ‘Solid’ means a +10% lead; ‘likely’ a +4% lead, and ‘edging’ means a 0-4% lead.

McCain solid (118)
Alabama (9)
Tennessee (11)
Mississippi (6)
Texas (34)
Idaho (4)
Nebraska (5)
Wyoming (3)
Utah (5)
Alaska (3)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (8)
Louisiana (9)
Oklahoma (7)
Kansas (6)

McCain Likely (14)
South Dakota (3)
West Virginia (5)
Arkansas (6)

McCain edging (50)

Montana (3)
Arizona (10)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)

Obama edging (18)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)

Obama likely (100)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)
Virginia (13)
Pennsylvania (21)
Colorado (9)

Obama solid (238)
Iowa (7)
New Hampshire (4)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (15)
Michigan (17)
Washington (11)
Maine (4)
Oregon (7)
Connecticut (7)
Massachusetts (12)
Illinois (21)
California (55)
Delaware (3)
Maryland (10)
Rhode Island (4)
Hawaii (4)
Vermont (3)
New York (31)
District of Columbia (3)

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Obama victory

375 electoral votes: Kerry States + Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia

Obama 52.5%
McCain 46.0%
Other 1.5%

by RandomBlogger on November 2, 2008 at 1:49 pm. Reply #

It’s somewhat tempting to give the exact results that would see Nancy Peloski become the next president (it’s on the BBC website) but I won’t…

Obama wins
Obama 338, McCain 200
Obama 50%, McCain 49%

Going to be wrong, but considering most of the racist/religious vote is going to McCain, I’m going to be close on the %. I don’t believe in predicting landslides.

by Huw Dawson on November 2, 2008 at 3:17 pm. Reply #

You’re missing some states from that list – it doesn’t add up to 538.

by Hywel Morgan on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 pm. Reply #

1. Obama win
2. Obama 364 McCain 174
3. Obama 51.8% McCain 46.8%

Hywel – the missing states are Louisiana, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, Oklahoma, Kansas, North Dakota, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia. 😉

by Joe Taylor on November 2, 2008 at 4:16 pm. Reply #

McCain
McCain 272 Obama 266
Obama 50% McCain49%

OK – I’m hoping like crazy that this is just my innate pessimism, but the scale of the fraud against and obstruction of voting directed towards likely Obama voters could still swing it for McCain.

by tony hill on November 2, 2008 at 4:17 pm. Reply #

1.Obama Win
2.Obama 300 McCain 238
3.Obama 60% McCain 37%

by Irfan Ahmed on November 2, 2008 at 5:18 pm. Reply #

I made my prediction on my blog a couple of weeks ago and I’ll stick with it.

Obama win.
Obama 310 McCain 228 (Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio).
Obama 52% McCain 46% Others 2%.

by Bernard Salmon on November 2, 2008 at 5:33 pm. Reply #

Presidential result?

Ros 48% Lembit 46% Chandila 6%

And then : 50 – 47 – 3 not redistributed

Ros wins.
Oh sorry; is there another presidential election???

by crewegwyn on November 2, 2008 at 5:55 pm. Reply #

You’re missing some states from that list – it doesn’t add up to 538.

Thanks for noticing, Hywel 🙂 Have updated to include all states, but still only get to 533 electoral college votes… can someone spot where I’ve made a mistake, please? (No mug on offer this time, I’m afraid).

by Stephen Tall on November 2, 2008 at 6:16 pm. Reply #

Nebraska (5)

by RandomBlogger on November 2, 2008 at 6:19 pm. Reply #

I’ll go for
1. Obama
2. O 360 M 178 (Kerry plus NM, CO, NV, IA, FL, NC, VA, OH with a bit extra for the possibility of IN and MO)
3. O 52 M 46

by Hywel Morgan on November 2, 2008 at 7:01 pm. Reply #

I tried before – like trying to name the seven dwarfs 🙂

by Hywel Morgan on November 2, 2008 at 7:03 pm. Reply #

Ask the Chinese. They hold all the purse strings now!

by Martin Land on November 2, 2008 at 7:23 pm. Reply #

I obviously hope McCain loses heavily, but I’m not counting my chickens.

There’ll be no predictions from me.

by asquith on November 3, 2008 at 9:22 am. Reply #

Obama

340:198

52:46

Based on predictions at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

by Ian Eiloart on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 am. Reply #

Ok here goes…

Obama 375

McCain 163

Obama 53%

McCain 46%

by Darrell on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 am. Reply #

The latest polls seem to be suggesting that Obama gets all Kerry states plus Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

One very odd aspect to this election is the fact that in some states a third of the elctorate has already voted.

I have never understood why Democrats do so well in Iowa, a state dominated by Germans, Christians and farmers. Maybe someone visitng this site can tell us.

In any normal country, Kentucky would vote for a party of the left. The eastern chunk, in particular, is full of impoverished, semi-literate rural whites who eke out an existence in a land of rusty trailers, sputering pick-ups, wooden shacks and potholed roads. They don’t even bother to go to church these days, but still they vote Republican. Charles Manson was born there. What does that tell us?

by Sesenco on November 3, 2008 at 3:33 pm. Reply #

“I have never understood why Democrats do so well in Iowa.”

I think McCain opposes ethanol subsidies which pay for a large chunk of Iowan farmers crops.

It cost Arnie Vinnick the state in the republican primaries but not (perhaps slightly unrealistically) in the general election.

by Hywel Morgan on November 3, 2008 at 7:33 pm. Reply #

Obama win
Obama 338 McCain 200
Obama 51.5% McCain 46.4%

Here’s hoping at any rate 😉

by Peter1919 on November 3, 2008 at 7:38 pm. Reply #

Here goes nothing:

Obama
378-160
53%-46%

by Stephen Tall on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 pm. Reply #

My prediction is a boring one;

1. Obama
2. Obama 353, McCain 185
3. Obama 50%, McCain 44%

I think early voting will just tip north Carolina to Obama, but that state is currently the hardest to call.

by Geoffrey Payne on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 pm. Reply #

Quick correction;
3/ Obama 53% McCain 46%

by Geoffrey Payne on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 pm. Reply #

Obama 378 McCain 160
Obama 55% McCain 42%

by Mark Littlewood on November 4, 2008 at 12:37 am. Reply #

Whoop for Mark and Steven…there was me thinking id be out on a limb being so high…

by Darrell on November 4, 2008 at 12:40 am. Reply #

1. Obama
2. Obama 353, McCain 185
3. Obama 52%, McCain 45%

by Liberal Neil on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 am. Reply #

In any normal country, Kentucky would vote for a party of the left. The eastern chunk, in particular, is full of impoverished, semi-literate rural whites who eke out an existence in a land of rusty trailers, sputering pick-ups, wooden shacks and potholed roads. They don’t even bother to go to church these days, but still they vote Republican. Charles Manson was born there. What does that tell us?

Sounds like west Norfolk…..(Tony Martin was born there…)

McCain to win
M 270 O 268
M 48

by TAG on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 am. Reply #

oops…as I was saying….

McCain to win
M 270 O 268
M 48 O 52

Though I’m not sure the mug would be enough to console me if I’m right.

by TAG on November 4, 2008 at 1:29 am. Reply #

1. McCain Win

2. Electoral votes:McCain 274 Obama 264

3. Popular vote; McCain 48% Obama 50%

by Niall Sullivan on November 4, 2008 at 1:33 am. Reply #

PS Just seen today’s featured articles on Wikipedia – the articles on the two main candidates – lets hope millions of Americans actually read them, though one suspects wiki users are heavily weighted to Obama already.

by TAG on November 4, 2008 at 1:34 am. Reply #

1. Obama
2. Obama 311, McCain 227
3. Obama 53%, McCain 45%

And for an encore, Al Franken to become Minnesota senator.

by Andy Hinton on November 4, 2008 at 1:43 am. Reply #

Oh I don’t know! Banks, bombers, preachers, plumbers, hockey moms, racists, Iraqis, grandmothers… Argh! Too many variables!

1. Obama
2. Obama 337, McCain 201
3. Obama 50, McCain 49

by Lonely Wanderer on November 4, 2008 at 2:37 am. Reply #

1. Obama
2. Obama 338, McCain 200
3. Obama 53%, McCain 40%

by Laurence Boyce on November 4, 2008 at 6:53 am. Reply #

Thank to all for your predictions. The competition thread is now closed to entries.

by Stephen Tall on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 am. Reply #

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