LDVUSA: your chance to enter the Presidential election prediction competition

by Stephen Tall on November 2, 2008

After perhaps the most fascinating electoral contest in modern political history, with more twists, turns and surprises than could ever have been imagined two years ago when it all began, the race to the White House is drawing to a close. In just three days (barring any hanging chads) we will know if the USA has elected its first black, or its oldest ever, President.

What we’re inviting Lib Dem Voice readers to do is to predict the likely outcome. The winner will earn not only the respect and acclaim of the Lib Dem blogosphere, but also the penultimate, limited edition LDV mug.

Here’s what you need to do to enter. First, predict the winner; secondly, predict the result in the electoral college; and, thirdly, predict the popular vote Senators Obama and McCain will attract.

So, if you believe the RealClearPolitics.com averages of the polls right now, you might enter the following answers:

1. Obama
2. Obama 353, McCain 185
3. Obama 50%, McCain 44%

The winner will be the reader who predicts the winner, and is closest to the eventual electoral college vote; the popular vote will determine the result in the event of a tie.

Please leave your entries in the comments box, below, and feel free to show your working. You can use a pseudonym if you prefer to remain anonymous, but you must use a valid email address for your entry to be included. The final closing date for entries is 9am, Tuesday morning.

Here for your interest and info is the latest round-up of which way the states are likely to line up in the electoral college, according to the average of the latest polls. ‘Solid’ means a +10% lead; ‘likely’ a +4% lead, and ‘edging’ means a 0-4% lead.

McCain solid (118)
Alabama (9)
Tennessee (11)
Mississippi (6)
Texas (34)
Idaho (4)
Nebraska (5)
Wyoming (3)
Utah (5)
Alaska (3)
Kentucky (8)
South Carolina (8)
Louisiana (9)
Oklahoma (7)
Kansas (6)

McCain Likely (14)
South Dakota (3)
West Virginia (5)
Arkansas (6)

McCain edging (50)

Montana (3)
Arizona (10)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (11)

Obama edging (18)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)

Obama likely (100)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)
Virginia (13)
Pennsylvania (21)
Colorado (9)

Obama solid (238)
Iowa (7)
New Hampshire (4)
Wisconsin (10)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (15)
Michigan (17)
Washington (11)
Maine (4)
Oregon (7)
Connecticut (7)
Massachusetts (12)
Illinois (21)
California (55)
Delaware (3)
Maryland (10)
Rhode Island (4)
Hawaii (4)
Vermont (3)
New York (31)
District of Columbia (3)