Davis wins by-election with 75% vote on a 35% turnout

by Stephen Tall on July 11, 2008

Well, that’s what the Yorkshire Post is saying, anyway, as of 12.30 am:

David Davis was tonight expected to easily win the Haltemprice and Howden by-election, with supporters predicting he would pick up at least 75 percent of the vote. …

Turnout was annouced officially as 34.5 percent – less than half that at the 2005 General Election, where 70.2 percent of constituents voted.

Mr Davis is expected to pick up between 15,000 and 16,000 votes, giving him a majority of about 10,000 to 12,000 – doubling that of the 5,116 majority he picked up in 2005.

The biggest surprise of the night was expected to be a strong showing by English Democrat candidate Joanne Robinson. She is predicted to come second or third.

Women’s rights campaigner Jill Saward was said to be picking up significant votes, as was the Green Party’s Shan Oakes.

None of the other candidates were expected to retain their deposits.

And who am I to disagree?

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Saward is about as much of a “women’s rights campaigner” as Valerie Solanas was.

by Tez Burke on July 11, 2008 at 1:16 am. Reply #

Your faith in the accuracy of the fourth estate is undimmed then 🙂

by Hywel Morgan on July 11, 2008 at 1:28 am. Reply #

A pyorrhoeaic victory?

by Manfarang on July 11, 2008 at 3:11 am. Reply #

H&H result in full;

Grace Astley (Ind) 77
David Bishop (Church of the Militant Elvis) 44
Ronnie Carroll (Make Politicians History) 29
Mad Cow-Girl (Official Monster Raving Loony) 412
David Craig (Ind) 135
Herbert Crossman (Ind) 11
Tess Culnane (NF) 544
Thomas Darwood (Ind) 25
** David Davis (Con) 17,113 (71.56%)
Tony Farnon (Ind) 8
Eamonn Fitzpatrick (Ind) 31
Christopher Foren (Ind) 23
Gemma Garrett (Miss Great Britain) 521
George Hargreaves (Christian Party) 76
Hamish Howitt (Freedom 4 Choice) 91
David Icke (Ind) 110
John Nicholson (Ind) 162
* Shan Oakes (Green) 1,758 (7.35%)
David Pinder (The New Party) 135
* Joanne Robinson (Eng Dem) 1,714 (7.17%)
Jill Saward (Ind) 492
Norman Scarth (Ind) 8
Walter Sweeney (Ind) 238
Christopher Talbot (Socialist Equality Party) 84
John Upex (Ind) 38
Greg Wood (Ind) 32

CON HOLD – MAJ 15,355
TURNOUT 34.5%

by Tez Burke on July 11, 2008 at 3:13 am. Reply #

So over 40,000 people backed candidates aginst 42 Days detention and after an intensive and well financed campaign, David Davis had reduced that to just over 17,000.
Job done:-)

Hey David, if your really bothered about a Government imposing bad legislation on the majority, why not suppport electoral reform, or would the liberty of having a meaningful vote be just too much?

by Mouse on July 11, 2008 at 5:53 am. Reply #

The lost deposits must have almost covered the cost of the by-election 🙂

by Iain Roberts on July 11, 2008 at 7:51 am. Reply #

Tez: Even though I disagree with Saward, this is a little harsh, I feel! Saward was a victim while Solanis was a would-be killer who got 3 years…

Iain: Yes – 23 lost deposits. Do they go to central govt or whatever passes for Haltemprice Council these days.

Prediction: I wasn’t far off with turnout, but overestimated Greens’ impact in 4 weeks, and wildly overestimated the impact of Saward’s press coverage – perhaps I am too broadsheet oriented! The ED anti-Lisbon brigade did better than I expected at the expense of the NF, but it confirms that only a very small minority are concerned enough about Lisbon to vote.

by By-election crusader on July 11, 2008 at 8:28 am. Reply #

This was (I hope) a unique event in British politics and as such most people seem to have struggled to give it some meaning, but perhaps the reality is that it has no meaning.

by tony hill on July 11, 2008 at 8:45 am. Reply #

I extend my sincerest congratulations to Davis, & hope this is the beginning of the end for the socialist police state.

People have voted for English liberty against the tyranny of a government which, in the firm conviction of its own righteousness, recognises no limits to state power. Davis has stood up & said no, in the name of the freedom-loving people of this nation, who as much as they have been led astray by the Daily Hate & the Scum will always revert to their libertarian insincts in the end.

by asquith on July 11, 2008 at 8:53 am. Reply #

Jill Saward is an authoritarian, who has been the victim of an horrific crime, yes, but who makes the mistake of thinking that her opinions on crime are magically made more valid by this. I am put in mind of Luke Akehurst, who is not a friend of this site or of me, asserting that there should be a terror victim standing as a pro-42 days candidate. He was then flayed alive by commentators who didn’t share his statist beliefs, & a similar fate has now befallen Saward, deservedly.

by asquith on July 11, 2008 at 9:00 am. Reply #

Actually, those figures in the headline aren’t correct (surely the headline can be edited, even if Stephen felt the need to jump the gun by basing it on a news report which obviously contained inconsistent information?).

Anyhow, it seems Davis got the backing of just under a quarter of the electorate. Considering that vox pops during the campaign werv saying many people would support him personally although they disagreed with his line on 42 days, it’s difficult to see what was achieved.

by Anonymous on July 11, 2008 at 9:02 am. Reply #

What was achieved, if you believe the polls, is that the public are now much more sceptical over the 42-day issue. Given that Gordon Brown kept referring to “public support” for the plans, this is something very significant indeed.

However, if you have made up your mind that you dont like David Davis then this wont make any difference to you, will it…

by MBoy on July 11, 2008 at 9:24 am. Reply #

MBoy

You may be interested to read a recent commentary on that question here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1244

It points out that the poll showing an apparent shift in attitudes asked a very loaded question – and that another survey showed virtually no movement in public opinion over the course of Davis’s campaign.

by Anonymous on July 11, 2008 at 9:41 am. Reply #

MBoy, I don’t like DD, but that does not disqualify me from looking at the results. With only 34% of a small safe Tory constituency (who had a turnout of 70% previously), I am not sure it is fair to say that Brown’s claim of public support is wrong. I mean I am not a statistician but I am sure that’s a pretty large claim drawn from a very small sample.

In fact DD has been screwed by the party system. Labour did not want a debate, the Lib Dems were on the same side, and Cameron was too pissed off with the man to throw the party media machine behind him. There was little coverage, & no real debate. In the meantime the Lords are doing what DD wanted to do without the narcissistic political gesturing.

by penfold on July 11, 2008 at 9:53 am. Reply #

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